Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; New Jersey; Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventories for 1996, 2005, and 2007 and Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for 2005 and 2007 Using MOBILE6

Note: EPA no longer updates this information, but it may be useful as a reference or resource.

[Federal Register: May 5, 2003 (Volume 68, Number 86)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Page 23662-23666]
From the Federal Register Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov]
[DOCID:fr05my03-41]

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[Region II Docket No. NJ58-254, FRL-7493-6]

Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; New Jersey;
Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventories for 1996, 2005, and 2007
and Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for 2005 and 2007 Using MOBILE6

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: EPA is proposing to approve a revision to the New Jersey State
Implementation Plan (SIP) for the attainment and maintenance of the 1-
hour national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) for ozone.
Specifically, EPA is proposing approval of New Jersey's: revised 1996,
2005, and 2007 motor vehicle emission inventories and 2005 and 2007
motor vehicle emissions budgets recalculated using MOBILE6; modified
date for submittal of the State's mid-course review; and updated
general conformity emissions budgets for McGuire Air Force Base. The
intended effect of this action is to approve a SIP revision that will
help the State continue to plan for attainment of the 1-hour NAAQS for
ozone in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island nonattainment
area (NAA) and the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton NAA.

DATES: Comments must be received on or before June 4, 2003. Public
comments on this action are requested and will be considered before
taking final action.

ADDRESSES: All comments should be addressed to Raymond Werner, Chief,
Air Programs Branch, Environmental Protection Agency, 290 Broadway,
25th Floor, New York, New York 10007-1866.
Copies of the documents relevant to this action are available for
public inspection during normal business hours at the following
locations: Environmental Protection Agency, Region 2 Office, Air
Programs Branch, 290 Broadway, 25th Floor, New York, New York 10007-
1866, and New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, Bureau of
Air Quality Planning, 401 East State Street, CN027, Trenton, New Jersey
08625.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Kenneth M. Champagne, Air Programs
Branch, Environmental Protection Agency, 290 Broadway, 25th Floor, New
York, New York 10007-1866, (212) 637-4249.

[[Page 23663]]

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: This notice is being proposed under a
procedure called parallel processing. Under parallel processing, EPA
proposes action on a state submission before it has been formally
adopted and submitted to EPA, and will take final action on its
proposal if the final submission is substantially unchanged from the
submission on which the proposal is based, or if significant changes in
the final submission are anticipated and adequately described in EPA's
proposal as a basis for EPA's proposed action.
New Jersey held a public hearing on its proposed SIP revision on
March 14, 2003. If New Jersey's proposed SIP revision is substantially
changed, EPA will evaluate those changes and may publish another notice
of proposed rulemaking. If no substantial changes are made, EPA will
take final action on the State's plan consistent with this proposal and
any submitted comments. Before EPA can approve this SIP revision, New
Jersey must adopt the SIP revision and submit it formally to EPA for
incorporation into the SIP.

Table of Contents

1. Background
2. What is MOBILE6?
3. What is the purpose and content of New Jersey's submittal?
4. What are the revised MOBILE6 inventories?
5. Are the revised MOBILE6 inventories consistent with New Jersey's
1-Hour Attainment Demonstration?
6. Are New Jersey's motor vehicle emissions budgets approvable?
7. When will New Jersey submit its mid-course review?
8. Summary of Conclusions and Proposed Action
9. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

1. Background

In November of 1999, EPA issued two memoranda \1\ to articulate its
policy regarding states that incorporated MOBILE5-based interim Tier 2
standard \2\ benefits into their SIPs and motor vehicle emissions
budgets (``budgets''). Although these memoranda primarily targeted
certain serious and severe ozone NAAs, EPA has implemented this policy
in all other areas that have made use of federal Tier 2 benefits in air
quality plans from EPA's April 2000 MOBILE5 guidance, ``MOBILE5
Information Sheet #8: Tier 2 Benefits Using MOBILE5.'' All
states whose attainment demonstrations or maintenance plans include
interim MOBILE5-based estimates of the Tier 2 standards were required
to make a commitment to revise and resubmit their budgets within either
1 or 2 years of the final release of MOBILE6 in order to gain SIP
approval.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

\1\ Memoranda, ``Guidance on Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets in
1-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstrations,'' issued November 3, 1999,
and ``1-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstrations and Tier2/Sulfur
Rulemaking,'' issued November 8, 1999. Copies of these memoranda can
be found on EPA's Web site at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/transp/traqconf.htm.
\2\ The final rule on Tier 2 Motor Vehicle Emissions Standards
and Gasoline Sulfur Control Requirements (``Tier 2 standards'') for
passenger cars, light trucks, and larger passenger vehicles was
published on February 10, 2000 (65 FR 6698).
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On April 26, 2000, New Jersey submitted a revision to the 1-hr
Ozone Attainment Demonstration SIP for the New Jersey portions of the
two severe ozone NAAs--the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island
Area and the Philadelphia-Wilmington-Trenton Area. For purposes of this
action, these areas will be referred to as, respectively, the Northern
New Jersey NAA and the Trenton NAA. This SIP revision included, among
other things, revised budgets using interim MOBILE5-based estimates of
the Tier 2 standards and an enforceable commitment to revise the
attainment demonstration using the MOBILE6 model, including budgets,
within one year of the release of the model. Additional information on
EPA's final approval of New Jersey's April 26, 2000 submittal can be
found in the February 4, 2002 Federal Register (67 FR 5152).
EPA officially released the MOBILE6 motor vehicle emissions factor
model on January 29, 2002 (67 FR 4254). Thus, the effective date of
that Federal Register notice constituted the start of the 1 year time
period for which New Jersey was required to revise its 1-Hour Ozone
Attainment Demonstration SIP using the MOBILE6 model. New Jersey was
required to submit this SIP revision to EPA by January 29, 2003.

2. What Is MOBILE6?

MOBILE is an EPA emissions factor model for estimating pollution
from on-road motor vehicles in states outside of California. MOBILE
calculates emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen
oxides (NO_X) and carbon monoxide (CO) from passenger cars,
motorcycles, buses, and light-duty and heavy-duty trucks. The model
accounts for the emission impacts of factors such as changes in vehicle
emission standards, changes in vehicle populations and activity, and
variation in local conditions such as temperature, humidity, fuel
quality, and air quality programs.
MOBILE is used to calculate current and future inventories of motor
vehicle emissions at the national and local level. These inventories
are used to make decisions about air pollution policies and programs at
the local, state and national level. Inventories based on MOBILE are
also used to meet the federal Clean Air Act's SIP and transportation
conformity requirements.
MOBILE6 is the first major update of the MOBILE model since 1993.
The MOBILE model was first developed in 1978. It has been updated many
times to reflect changes in the vehicle fleet and fuels, to incorporate
EPA's growing understanding of vehicle emissions, and to cover new
emissions regulations and modeling needs. Although some minor updates
were made in 1996 with the release of MOBILE5b, MOBILE6 is the first
major revision to MOBILE since MOBILE5a was released in 1993.

3. What Is the Purpose and Content of New Jersey's Submittal?

To address its enforceable commitment made in the April 26, 2000
Attainment Demonstration SIP revision, the State submitted a proposed
SIP revision on January 31, 2003 (hereinafter referred to as the
January 31, 2003 submittal) which revises the 1996, 2005, and 2007
motor vehicle emissions inventories and the 2005 and 2007 motor vehicle
emissions budgets using the MOBILE6 model. The January 31, 2003
submittal demonstrates that the new levels of motor vehicle emissions
calculated using MOBILE6 continue to support achievement of the rate of
progress requirements and projected attainment of the 1-hour ozone
NAAQS for the Northern New Jersey NAA and Trenton NAA.
Also included as a part of the January 31, 2003 submittal, New
Jersey proposes to modify the planned date for submitting its mid-
course review to December 31, 2004 and to update the general conformity
emissions budgets for McGuire Air Force Base.

4. What Are the Revised MOBILE6 Inventories?

Table 1 below summarizes the revised motor vehicle emissions
inventories statewide and by nonattainment area in tons per summer day
(tpd). These revised inventories were developed using the latest
planning assumptions, including 1999 vehicle registration data, vehicle
miles traveled (VMT), speeds, fleet mix, and SIP control measures. EPA
is proposing to approve these revised 1996, 2005 and 2007 motor vehicle
emissions inventories. While the primary focus of this proposed
rulemaking is the Northern New Jersey and Trenton NAAs, New Jersey has
also revised the motor vehicle emissions inventories for the Atlantic
City ozone

[[Page 23664]]

NAA and the New Jersey portion of the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton ozone
NAA due to their inclusion in the overall motor vehicle emissions
budgets. For the Atlantic City and Allentown NAAs, the most recent
three years of data continue to demonstrate attainment of the 1-hour
ozone standard. However, EPA has not yet received redesignation
requests for these areas.

Table 1.--New Jersey's Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Inventories
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996 2005 2007
-----------------------------------------------------------------
NAA area VOC NO_X VOC NO_X VOC NO_X
(tpd) (tpd) (tpd) (tpd) (tpd) (tpd)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Atlantic City.................. 24.21 29.96 14.63 22.07 \1\ \1\
Northern New Jersey............ 320.22 356.46 156.37 237.17 134.00 186.93
Trenton........................ 102.69 130.47 50.48 77.72 \1\ \1\
Allentown...................... 9.29 16.79 5.59 12.89 4.77 10.25
------------
State Total................ 456.42 533.67 227.08 349.85 \1\ \1\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Not applicable.

5. Are the Revised MOBILE6 Inventories Consistent With New Jersey's 1-
Hour Attainment Demonstration?

EPA has articulated its policy regarding the use of MOBILE6 in SIP
development in its ``Policy Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6 for SIP
Development and Transportation Conformity'' \3\ and ``Clarification of
Policy Guidance for MOBILE6 in Mid-course Review Areas.'' \4\
Consistent with this policy guidance, New Jersey included in the
January 31, 2003 submittal a relative reduction comparison to show that
its 1-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration SIP continues to demonstrate
attainment using revised MOBILE6 inventories for the Northern New
Jersey NAA and the Trenton NAA. New Jersey's attainment demonstration
used photochemical grid modeling supplemented with weight of evidence.
As such, the State's methodology for the relative reduction comparison
consisted of comparing the new MOBILE6 inventories with the previously
approved (67 FR 5152) MOBILE5 inventories for the Northern New Jersey
NAA and the Trenton NAA to determine if attainment will still be
predicted by the established attainment dates. Specifically, the State
calculated the relative reductions (expressed as percent reductions) in
ozone precursors between the 1996 base year and attainment year
inventory, both MOBILE5-based. These percent reductions were then
compared to the percent reductions between the revised MOBILE6-based
1996 base year and attainment year inventories. It should be noted that
the latest planning assumptions were used in modeling for the State's
relative reduction comparison.
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\3\ Memorandum, ``Policy Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6 for SIP
development and Transportation Conformity,'' issued January 18,
2002. A copy of this memorandum can be found on EPA's Web site at
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/transp/traqconf.htm.
\4\ Memorandum, ``Clarification of Policy Guidance for MOBILE6
SIPs in Mid-course Review Areas,'' issued February 12, 2003. A copy
of this memorandum can be found on EPA's Web site at
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/transp/traqconf.htm.
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New Jersey's relative reduction comparison shows that for the
Northern New Jersey NAA the percent reduction of VOC and NO_X
emissions achieved in the revised MOBILE6 inventories is higher than
the percent reduction calculated with MOBILE5, thus the required
emission reductions needed to attain the 1-hour ozone NAAQS are
achieved, and the SIP continues to demonstrate attainment. For the
Trenton NAA, the percent reduction of VOC emissions achieved in the
revised MOBILE6 inventories is higher than the percent reduction
calculated with MOBILE5, however the percent reduction of
NO_X emissions achieved in the revised MOBILE6 inventories is
lower than the percent reduction calculated with MOBILE5, thus a slight
NO_X shortfall is indicated. New Jersey has previously
demonstrated in its Phase I Ozone SIP, approved by EPA on April 23,
1999 (64 FR 19913), that VOC or NO_X emission reductions are
equally valuable towards attaining the 1-hour ozone standard.
Therefore, New Jersey substituted excess VOC emission reductions for
NO_X emission reductions, as allowed for under Section
182(c)(2)(C) of the Clean Air Act. To make such an equivalency
demonstration, the State converted the percentage changes for VOC and
NO_X to +2.46 and -1.44 tons per day, respectively. Based on
the emission inventories, New Jersey has determined for the Trenton NAA
that approximately 1.04 tons of VOC emissions equals 1 ton of
NO_X emissions, as the emissions relate to their potential to
form ozone. Consistent with EPA's policy on substitution of ozone
precursor emission reductions, New Jersey increased the NO_X
reductions and decreased VOC reductions by their equivalent amounts,
resulting in offsetting effects with respect to ozone formation. Thus,
the required emission reductions needed to attain the 1-hour ozone
NAAQS are achieved for the Trenton NAA, and the SIP continues to
demonstrate attainment.
EPA's policy guidance also required the State to consider whether
growth and control strategy assumptions for non-motor vehicle sources
(i.e., point, area, and non-road mobile sources) were still accurate at
the time the January 31, 2003 submittal was developed. New Jersey
reviewed the growth and control strategy assumptions for non-motor
vehicle sources, and concluded that these assumptions continue to be
valid for the 1-hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration.
New Jersey's January 31, 2003 submittal satisfies the conditions
outlined in EPA's MOBILE6 Policy guidance, and demonstrates that the
new levels of motor vehicle emissions calculated using MOBILE6 continue
to support achievement of the projected attainment of the 1-Hour Ozone
NAAQS by the attainment dates of 2007 for the Northern New Jersey NAA
and 2005 for the Trenton NAA.

6. Are New Jersey's Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets Approvable?

Table 2 below summarizes New Jersey's revised budgets contained in
the January 31, 2003 submittal. These budgets were developed using the
latest planning assumptions, including 1999 vehicle registration data,
VMT, speeds, fleet mix, and SIP control measures. For the South Jersey
Transportation Planning Organization (SJTPO) and Delaware Valley
Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) the 2005 budgets are revised
attainment year budgets. For

[[Page 23665]]

the North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority (NJTPA) the 2005
budgets are revised budgets based on the Reasonable Further Progress
(RFP) Plans, while the 2007 budgets are revised attainment year
budgets. EPA is proposing to approve all of these budgets.
Concurrent with this notice of proposed rulemaking, EPA is
completing the adequacy review process on the revised 2005 attainment
budgets for SJTPO and DVRPC and the revised 2007 attainment budgets for
NJTPA. EPA began the 30-day comment period for these budgets on March
14, 2003 by posting a notice on EPA's conformity Web site:
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/transp/conform/adequacy.htm. In accordance with
the ``Conformity Guidance on Implementation of March 2, 1999 Conformity
Court Decision,'' \5\ EPA will issue its adequacy determination,
including a response to comments, by posting it on the conformity Web
site, and will also subsequently announce the determination in the
Federal Register. The revised 2005 and 2007 attainment budgets will
apply for conformity purposes once EPA issues its adequacy
determination. It should be noted that EPA's adequacy determination
will only be for the revised attainment year budgets, and not for the
revised RFP budgets. This is consistent with EPA's approval of the
previous MOBILE5 budgets (67 FR 5152), which limited the adequacy
process to only the revised attainment year budgets. The revised 2005
RFP budgets for NJTPA will not be available for use in conformity
determinations until after EPA publishes a final rulemaking on the
January 31, 2003 submittal.
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\5\ Memorandum, ``Conformity Guidance on Implementation of March
2, 1999 Conformity Court Decision,'' issued May 14, 1999. A copy of
this memorandum can be found on EPA's Web site at
http://www.epa.gov/otaq/transp/traqconf.htm.

Table 2.--New Jersey Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2005 2007
--------------------------------- NO_X
Transportation planning area VOC NO_X VOC (tpd)
(tpd) (tpd) (tpd)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority (NJTPA).............. 161.97 250.05 138.77 197.19
South Jersey Transportation Planning Organization (SJTPO)........... 22.12 36.36 \1\ \1\
Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC)................ 42.99 63.44 \1\ \1\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Not applicable, since the attainment year is 2005.

Also included as part of the January 31, 2003 submittal, New Jersey
is proposing to update the general conformity emissions budgets for the
McGuire Air Force Base, previously approved by EPA in the February 4,
2002 Federal Register (67 FR 5152). Due to McGuire Air Force Base's
vital status in the national defense and need to accommodate additional
aircraft in 2005, New Jersey is proposing a change to the 2005
emissions budgets. The year 2005 NO_X budget is being
increased by 200 tons per year and the VOC budget is being decreased by
208 tons per year. New Jersey is proposing this change consistent with
EPA's policy on substitution of ozone precursor emission reductions.
Based on the emission inventories, New Jersey has determined for the
Trenton NAA that approximately 1 ton per year of NO_X
emissions equals 1.04 tons per year of VOC emissions, as the emissions
relate to their potential to form ozone. Thus, increasing
NO_X and decreasing VOC by their equivalent amounts results
in offsetting effects with respect to ozone formation. Table 3 below
summarizes the revised general conformity budgets. EPA is proposing to
approve the revised 2005 general conformity emissions budgets.

Table 3.--McGuire Air Force Base General Conformity Emissions Budgets
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Previously approved New budgets
budgets -------------------------
--------------------------
VOC tons/ NO_X tons/ VOC tons/ NO_X tons/
year year year year
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1990 Baseline............................................... 1,112 1,038 1,112 1,038
1996........................................................ 1,186 1,107 1,186 1,107
1999........................................................ 1,223 1,142 1,223 1,142
2002........................................................ 1,405 875 1,405 875
2005\1\..................................................... 1,406 884 1,198 1,084
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ 2005 budgets updated such that the increase in NO_X is offset by a decrease in VOC, resulting in no expected
net increase in ozone formation.

7. When Will New Jersey Submit Its Mid-Course Review?

On September 12, 2001, New Jersey submitted a mid-course review
analysis which showed a continued downward trend in both the number of
violations of the 1-hour ozone standard and the measured ozone
concentrations. EPA found, however, that several more years of
monitored data and implementation of the Regional NO_X
Program were needed before a true mid-course review of the attainment
demonstration could be made. Therefore, on February 4, 2002 (67 FR
5152), EPA approved New Jersey's further commitment to perform a mid-
course review and submit the results to EPA by December 31, 2003.
Due to challenges by upwind states of EPA's Regional NO_X
Program, the benefit of these upwind NO_X reductions will not
be fully realized until late 2003. Therefore, EPA has allowed states to
revise their mid-course commitments to provide for the review no later
than December 31, 2004. In order to be consistent with surrounding
states and to include the benefit of the Regional NO_X
Program in its mid-course review, New Jersey revised its commitment to

[[Page 23666]]

perform a mid-course review to December 31, 2004. EPA proposes to
approve this revised commitment.

8. Summary of Conclusions and Proposed Action

This revision is being proposed under a procedure called parallel
processing, whereby EPA proposes rulemaking action concurrently with
the State's procedures for amending its regulations. If the proposed
revision is substantially changed in areas other than those identified
in this document, EPA will evaluate those changes and may publish
another notice of proposed rulemaking. If no substantial changes are
made other than those areas cited in this document, EPA will publish a
final rulemaking on the revisions. The final rulemaking action by EPA
will occur only after the SIP revision has been adopted by New Jersey
and submitted formally to EPA for incorporation into the SIP.
EPA is proposing to approve New Jersey's proposed SIP revision
submitted on January 31, 2003. This submittal revises New Jersey's
1996, 2005, and 2007 motor vehicle emission inventories and 2005 and
2007 motor vehicle emissions budgets using MOBILE6, modifies the
planned date to complete the State's mid-course review to December 31,
2004, and updates the general conformity emissions budgets for McGuire
Air Force Base. New Jersey has demonstrated that its revised 1-Hour
Attainment Demonstration SIP for the Northern New Jersey NAA and the
Trenton NAA continues to demonstrate attainment with the revised
MOBILE6 inventories.

9. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

Under Executive Order 12866 (58 FR 51735, October 4, 1993), this
proposed action is not a ``significant regulatory action'' and
therefore is not subject to review by the Office of Management and
Budget. For this reason, this action is also not subject to Executive
Order 13211, ``Actions Concerning Regulations That Significantly Affect
Energy Supply, Distribution, or Use'' (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001). This
proposed action merely proposes to approve state law as meeting Federal
requirements and imposes no additional requirements beyond those
imposed by state law. Accordingly, the Administrator certifies that
this proposed rule will not have a significant economic impact on a
substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory Flexibility
Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.). Because this rule proposes to approve pre-
existing requirements under state law and does not impose any
additional enforceable duty beyond that required by state law, it does
not contain any unfunded mandate or significantly or uniquely affect
small governments, as described in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of
1995 (Public Law 104-4).
This proposed rule also does not have tribal implications because
it will not have a substantial direct effect on one or more Indian
tribes, on the relationship between the Federal Government and Indian
tribes, or on the distribution of power and responsibilities between
the Federal Government and Indian tribes, as specified by Executive
Order 13175 (59 FR 22951, November 9, 2000). This action also does not
have Federalism implications because it does not have substantial
direct effects on the States, on the relationship between the national
government and the States, or on the distribution of power and
responsibilities among the various levels of government, as specified
in Executive Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10, 1999). This action
merely proposes to approve a state rule implementing a Federal
standard, and does not alter the relationship or the distribution of
power and responsibilities established in the Clean Air Act. This
proposed rule also is not subject to Executive Order 13045 ``Protection
of Children from Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks''
(62 FR 19885, April 23, 1997), because it is not economically significant.
In reviewing SIP submissions, EPA's role is to approve state
choices, provided that they meet the criteria of the Clean Air Act. In
this context, in the absence of a prior existing requirement for the
State to use voluntary consensus standards (VCS), EPA has no authority
to disapprove a SIP submission for failure to use VCS. It would thus be
inconsistent with applicable law for EPA, when it reviews a SIP
submission, to use VCS in place of a SIP submission that otherwise
satisfies the provisions of the Clean Air Act. Thus, the requirements
of section 12(d) of the National Technology Transfer and Advancement
Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272 note) do not apply. This proposed rule does
not impose an information collection burden under the provisions of the
Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995 (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.).

List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52

Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Hydrocarbons,
Intergovernmental relations, Oxides of Nitrogen, Ozone, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements, Volatile organic compounds.

Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.

Dated: April 22, 2003.
Jane M. Kenny,
Regional Administrator, Region 2.
[FR Doc. 03-10999 Filed 5-2-03; 8:45 am]
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