Clear Skies in Kentucky

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Highlights of Clear Skies in Kentucky

• Kentucky sources would reduce emissions of SO2 by 51%, NOx by 74%, and mercury by 68% by 2020 due to Clear Skies.
  
• By 2020, Kentucky would receive approximately $3.6 billion in annual health benefits from Clear Skies (an alternative estimate projects $640 million in health benefits in Kentucky). This includes 500 fewer premature deaths (300 under the alternative estimate) and 900 fewer hospitalizations/emergency room visits for asthma.
  
• In addition, Kentucky would receive environmental benefits including reductions in acid deposition that will benefit forests and streams in the Appalachian Mountains and visibility improvements.
• Clear Skies does not significantly impact electricity prices. With or without Clear Skies, electricity prices in the electricity supply region that includes Kentucky are expected to remain below the national average.

Clear Skies: An Innovative Approach to Improving Human Health and the Environment

Why Clear Skies?

• Air quality has improved, but serious concerns persist
  • Kentucky citizens suffer ill effects from air pollution, including asthma attacks and premature death
• Electricity generation sector remains a major emissions source
  
  • Very cost-effective to control the power sector, relative to other sources
    
  • Sources are concerned about upcoming complex and burdensome regulations
    

Advantages of the Clear Skies Approach

• Guarantees significant nationwide emissions reductions
  
  • beginning years before full implementation
  • Kentucky sources would substantially reduce emissions of SO2, NOx, and mercury
  • Delivers dramatic progress towards achievement of critical health and environmental goals
• Uses proven, market-based flexible approach with incentives for innovation
  • Recognizes environmental needs as well as industry constraints, allowing industry to better manage its operations and finances while lowering risks to the public
  • Sources are projected to install pollution controls to enable continued reliance on coal
• Increases certainty across the board for industry, regulators, and consumer

Under Current Clean Air Act Power Plants Would Face a Complex Set of Requirements

For a larger image, click here.

Clear Skies Sets a Firm Timeline for Emission Reductions

2004: The NOx SIP call (summertime NOx cap in 19 Eastern States + D.C.)

2008: Clear Skies NOx Phase I (2.1 million ton annual cap assigned to two Zones with trading programs)

2010:

• Clear Skies Hg Phase I (26 ton annual cap with a national trading program)
• SO2 Phase I (4.5 million ton annual cap with a national trading program)

2018:

• Clear Skies NOx Phase II (1.7 million ton annual cap assigned to two Zones with trading programs)
• Clear Skies Hg Phase II (15 ton annual cap with a national trading program)
• Clear Skies SO2 Phase II (3.0 million ton annual cap with a national trading program)

Emissions in Kentucky under Clear Skies

Some of these reductions will occur as a result of Kentucky’s state rule which was not included in EPA modeling because the rule was passed in March of 2003.

Emissions: Current (2000) and Existing Clean Air Act Regulations (base case*) vs. Clear Skies in Kentucky in 2010 and 2020

Note: The base case using IPM includes Title IV, the NOx SIP Call, NSR settlements, and state-specific caps in CT, MA, MO, NC, NH, TX, and WI. It does not include mercury MACT in 2007 or any other potential future regulations to implement the current air quality standards or other parts of the Clean Air Act. Base case emissions in 2020 will likely be lower due to state and federal regulatory actions that have not yet been promulgated.

Clear Skies Health Benefits in Kentucky

Improve Public Health

• Reduced ozone and fine particle exposure by 2020 would result in public health benefits of:
  • approximately 300 fewer premature deaths each year (see note 1)
  • approximately 300 fewer cases of chronic bronchitis each year
  • approximately 600 fewer non-fatal heart attacks each year
  • approximately 900 fewer hospital and emergency room visits each year
  • approximately 49,000 fewer days workers are out sick due to respiratory symptoms each year
  • approximately 6,400 fewer school absences each year
• Reduced mercury emissions would reduce exposure to mercury through consumption of contaminated fish, resulting in additional, unquantified benefits for those who eat fish from lakes and streams in Kentucky that are contaminated with mercury.

Counties Projected to Remain Out of Attainment with the PM2.5 and Ozone Standards in Kentucky

1: Based on 1999-2001 data of counties with monitors that have three years of complete data.

Note: The base case includes Title IV, the NOx SIP Call, the Tier II, Heavy-Duty Diesel, and Nonroad Diesel rules, final NSR settlements as of early spring 2003, and state-specific caps in CT, MA, MO, NC, NH, TX, and WI. It does not include mercury MACT or any other potential future regulations to implement the current ambient air quality standards or other parts of the Clean Air Act. Based on 1999-2001 data of counties with monitors that have three years of complete data.

Clear Skies would help Kentucky meet Air Quality Standards

• Currently there are 9 counties exceeding the annual fine particle standards and 13 counties exceeding the 8-hour ozone standard.
  • All of these counties are expected to be brought into attainment with the fine particle standards under existing programs by 2020.
  • All of these counties are expected to be brought into attainment with the ozone standard under existing programs by 2010.
    
    
• Clear Skies would significantly improve air quality in Kentucky further and more quickly than what is expected from existing programs.
  • By 2010, Clear Skies would bring the 2 remaining non-attainment counties (Jefferson and Fayette -- population approximately 1 million) into attainment with the annual fine particle standards.
    
• In addition, Clear Skies would reduce ozone and fine particle concentrations in counties attaining the standards throughout the state.

Note: Based on 1999-2001 data of counties with monitors that have three years of complete data.

Clear Skies Environmental Benefits in Kentucky

In comparison to existing programs,

• Visibility would improve perceptibly. The value of this benefit for Kentucky residents who visit America’s National Parks and Wilderness Areas is $43 million.
• Sulfur deposition, a primary cause of acid rain, would decrease by 30-60% across the eastern half of Kentucky, speeding recovery of acid-sensitive Appalachian mountain streams.
• Nitrogen deposition, another significant contributor to acid rain, as well as a cause of damage in nitrogen-sensitive forests, would decrease by up to 20%.
  
• Mercury deposition would decrease by up to 15% in most of the state and by up to 60% in areas along the Ohio border.*

*These results are based on modeling the Clear Skies mercury cap without the safety valve.

SO2 and NOx Emissions Reductions under Clear Skies

Note: The base case in IPM includes Title IV, the NOx SIP Call, NSR settlements, and state-specific caps in CT, MA, MO, NC, NH, TX, and WI. It does not include mercury MACT in 2007 or any other potential future regulations to implement the current ambient air quality standards or other parts of the Clean Air Act. Base case emissions in 2020 will likely be lower due to state and federal regulatory actions that have not yet been promulgated. Emissions projected for new units in 2020 are not reflected.

Electricity Generation in Kentucky under Clear Skies

Current and Projected Generation by Fuel Type in Kentucky under Clear Skies (GWh)

Kentucky’s sources are projected to reduce their emissions through the installation of emission controls, rather than through a switch from coal to natural gas. In 2010, 80% of Kentucky's coal-fired generation is projected to come from units with advanced SO2 and/or NOx control equipment that also substantially reduce mercury emissions; in 2020, the percentage is projected to increase to 89%. No coal-fired units in Kentucky are projected to be removed from operation as a result of Clear Skies.

Emission Controls in Kentucky under Clear Skies

Units in Kentucky Projected to be Retrofitted due to Clear Skies by 2020

* Retrofit was installed under Clear Skies by 2010

Note: Retrofits and total coal-fired capacity apply to coal units greater than 25 MW.