Clear Skies in North Carolina

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Highlights of Clear Skies in North Carolina

• North Carolina’s Clean Smokestacks Act will substantially reduce emissions of SO2 and NOx in the State.
• Clear Skies builds on North Carolina’s Clean Smokestacks Act to achieve additional emission reductions in the state, particularly for mercury; an additional 17% reduction in NOx and 43% reduction in mercury by 2020 due to Clear Skies. Clear Skies also achieves substantial emissions reductions in neighboring states, which the Clean Smokestacks Act cannot accomplish.
• By 2020, North Carolina would receive approximately $5.8 billion in annual health benefits from reductions in fine particle and ozone concentrations alone due to Clear Skies (an alternative estimate projects $1 billion in health benefits in North Carolina). This includes 700 fewer premature deaths (400 under the alternative estimate) and 800 fewer hospitalizations/emergency room visits for asthma.
• North Carolina would receive environmental benefits, including reductions in acid deposition that will benefit forests and streams in the Appalachian Mountains and reductions in nitrogen deposition that will benefit the state’s coastal waters.
• Clear Skies does not significantly impact electricity prices. With or without Clear Skies, electricity prices in the electricity supply region that includes North Carolina are expected to remain below 2000 prices.

Clear Skies: An Innovative Approach to Improving Human Health and the Environment

Why Clear Skies?

• Air quality has improved, but serious concerns persist
  
  • North Carolina citizens suffer ill effects from air pollution, including asthma attacks and premature death
  • Statewide efforts, like the Clean Smokestacks Act, cannot reduce emissions from neighboring states
• Electricity generation sector remains a major emissions source
  • Very cost-effective to control the power sector, relative to other sources
    
  • Sources are concerned about upcoming complex and burdensome regulations

Advantages of the Clear Skies Approach

• Guarantees significant nationwide emissions reductions – beginning years before full implementation
  • Sources in North Carolina and nearby states would substantially reduce emissions of SO2, NOx, and mercury
    
  • Delivers dramatic progress towards achievement of critical health and environmental goals
• Uses proven, market-based flexible approach with incentives for innovation
  • Recognizes environmental needs as well as industry constraints, allowing industry to better manage its operations and finances while lowering risks to the public
    
  • Sources are projected to install pollution controls to enable continued reliance on coal
• Increases certainty across the board for industry, regulators, and consumers
  

Under Current Clean Air Act Power Plants Would Face a Complex Set of Requirements

For a larger image, click here.

Clear Skies Sets a Firm Timeline for Emission Reductions

2004: The NOx SIP call (summertime NOx cap in 19 Eastern States + D.C.)

2008: Clear Skies NOx Phase I (2.1 million ton annual cap assigned to two Zones with trading programs)

2010:

• Clear Skies Hg Phase I (26 ton annual cap with a national trading program)
• SO2 Phase I (4.5 million ton annual cap with a national trading program)

2018:

• Clear Skies NOx Phase II (1.7 million ton annual cap assigned to two Zones with trading programs)
• Clear Skies Hg Phase II (15 ton annual cap with a national trading program)
• Clear Skies SO2 Phase II (3.0 million ton annual cap with a national trading program)

Emissions in North Carolina under Clear Skies

Emissions: Current (2000) and Existing Clean Air Act Regulations (base case*) vs. Clear Skies in North Carolina in 2010 and 2020

Note: The base case in IPM includes Title IV, the NOxSIP Call, NSR settlements, and state-specific caps in CT, MA, MO, NC, NH, TX, and WI. It does not include mercury MACT in 2007 or any other potential future regulations to implement the current ambient air quality standards or other parts of the Clean Air Act. Base case emissions in 2020 will likely be lower due to state and federal regulatory actions that have not yet been promulgated.

Emission Reductions under Clear Skies

Note: The base case in IPM includes Title IV, the NOx SIP Call, NSR settlements, and state-specific caps in CT, MA, MO, NC, NH, TX, and WI. It does not include mercury MACT in 2007 or any other potential future regulations to implement the current ambient air quality standards or other parts of the Clean Air Act. Base case emissions in 2020 will likely be lower due to state and federal regulatory actions that have not yet been promulgated. Emissions projected for new units in 2020 are not reflected.

Clear Skies Health Benefits in North Carolina

Improve Public Health

• Reduced ozone and fine particle exposure by 2020 would result in public health benefits of:
  • approximately 700 fewer premature deaths each year
  • approximately 500 fewer cases of chronic bronchitis each year
  • approximately 1,000 fewer non-fatal heart attacks each year
  • approximately 1,500 fewer hospital and emergency room visits each year
  • approximately 88,000 fewer days workers are out sick due to respiratory symptoms each year
  • approximately 5,400 fewer school absences each year
• Reduced mercury emissions would reduce exposure to mercury through consumption of contaminated fish, resulting in additional, unquantified benefits for those who eat fish from North Carolina lakes, streams, and coastal waters.
  

Counties Projected to Remain Out of Attainment with the PM2.5 and Ozone Standards in North Carolina

• Catawba, Davidson, and Mecklenburg counties are projected to remain out of attainment with the annual fine particle standard in 2010 with the Base Case but would attain the standard under Clear Skies.
• Mecklenburg County is projected to be out of attainment (ozone concentration=85ppb) with the ozone standard with Clear Skies in 2010 but is in attainment by 2020.

Note: Based on 1999-2001 data of counties with monitors that have three years of complete data. The base case includes Title IV, the NOx SIP Call, the Tier II, Heavy-Duty Diesel, and Nonroad Diesel rules, final NSR settlements as of early spring 2003, and state-specific caps in CT, MA, MO, NC, NH, TX, and WI. It does not include mercury MACT or any other potential future regulations to implement the current ambient air quality standards or other parts of the Clean Air Act.

Clear Skies Will Help North Carolina Meet Air Quality Standards

• Currently there are 15 counties exceeding the annual fine particle standard and 22 counties exceeding the 8-hour ozone standard.
  
  • All of these counties are expected to be brought into attainment with the fine particle standard under existing programs.
    
  • All of these counties are expected to be brought into attainment with the ozone standard under existing programs.
• Clear Skies would significantly improve air quality in North Carolina beyond what is expected from existing programs.
  • By 2010, Clear Skies would bring all 3 remaining non-attainment counties (Catawba, Davidson, and Mecklenburg--population approximately 1 million) into attainment with the annual fine particle standard.
  • By 2020, all counties are projected to be in attainment with both the annual fine particle and 8-hour ozone standard.
• In addition, Clear Skies would reduce ozone and fine particle concentrations in counties throughout the state.

Note: Based on 1999-2001 data of counties with monitors that have three years of complete data.

Airsheds for the Southern Blue Ridge Mountains

This section shows regional airshed maps that were developed for the Southern Blue Ridge Mountains (which includes Shenandoah National Park).

• Multiple emission sources in numerous states contribute to air quality degradation and acid deposition in the Southern Blue Ridge region.
• In 2020, emissions from power plants in the Southern Blue Ridge region are projected to be substantially lower with Clear Skies than under the Base Case:
• SO2 emissions are projected to decrease 61%;
• NOx emissions are projected to decrease 68%.

Note: An airshed depicts a modeled approximation of a large proportion of sources contributing to air quality in a particular receptor region.

Visibility Benefits in National Parks

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Clear Skies Environmental Benefits in North Carolina

Projected Changes in Nitrogen Deposition with the Base Case in 2020 Compared to 2001

Projected Changes in Nitrogen Deposition with Clear Skies and the Base Case in 2020 Compared to 2001

Note: Alaska and Hawaii are not included in the model domain

Clear Skies Would Provide Substantial Environmental Benefits in North Carolina

In comparison to existing programs,

• Visibility would improve perceptibly.
  
  • The value of this benefit for great Smoky Mountain National Park is $1.9 billion.
    
  • The value of improved visibility for various Wilderness Areas in North Carolina (Swanquarter, Shining Rockand Linville Gorge Wilderness Areas) would be millions of dollars.
    
• Sulfur deposition, a primary cause of acid rain, would decrease 30-60% in the Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina.
  
• Nitrogen deposition, another significant contributor to acid rain as well as a cause of damage in nitrogen-sensitive forests and coastal waters, would decrease 20%.
  
• Mercury deposition would decrease up to 15% throughout most of the state.*
  

* These results are based on modeling the Clear Skies mercury cap without triggering the safety valve.

Electricity Generation in North Carolina under Clear Skies

Current and Projected Generation by Fuel Type in North Carolina under Clear Skies (GWh)

North Carolina’s sources are projected to reduce their emissions through the installation of emission controls, rather than through a switch from coal to natural gas. In 2010, 78% of North Carolina’s coal-fired generation is projected to come from units with advanced SO2, NOx and/or mercury control equipment; in 2020, the percentage is projected to increase to 93%. Most pollution controls are projected to be installed to meet the reductions required under the Clean Smokestacks Act.

Emission Controls in North Carolina under Clear Skies

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