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Evaluation of Emission Inventories

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Objective
Introduction
Approach
Issues
- Ambient Data
- Emission Inventory
Analyses
Case Study: Evaluation of the Emission Inventory for Southeast Texas
Uncertainty Issues
Summary
References and Additional Reading

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OBJECTIVE

 

This section introduces a procedure to evaluate emission inventories using a "top-down" approach.

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DEFINITIONS

CB-IV = Carbon bond.  IV chemical reaction mechanism scheme
CMSA = Consolidated metropolitan statistical area
COAST = Coastal Oxidant Assessment for Southeast Texas
LT = Local Time
MIR = Maximum incremental reactivity
MSA = Metropolitan statistical area
NMHC = Nonmethane hydrocarbons
NMOC = Nonmethane Organic Compounds; NMHC+carbonyl compounds
NOx = NO + NO2 + poorly defined fraction of other NOy species (given conventional analyzers)
ROG = Reactive organic gas
SIP = State implementation plan
VOC = Volatile organic compounds

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INTRODUCTION

  • Emission inventories are routinely used for planning purposes and as input to comprehensive photochemical air quality models.
  • Significant biases in either VOC or NOx emission estimates can lead to poor baseline photochemical model performance and erroneous estimates of the effects of control strategies.

 

Essential top-down emission inventory evaluation procedure: comparison of emission estimates with ambient air quality data.

 Caution: Ambient/emission inventory comparisons are useful for examining the relative composition of emission inventories; they are not useful for verifying absolute amounts unless they are combined with bottom-up evaluations.

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APPROACH

 Perform the following three tasks: 

  1. Compare early morning (e.g., 0700-0900 LT) ambient- and emissions-derived NMOC/NOx and CO/NOx ratios.
  2. Compare early morning ambient- and emissions-derived relative compositions of individual chemical species and species groups. 
  3. Compare early morning ambient- and emissions-derived relative reactivities of individual chemical species and species groups.

Early morning sampling periods are the most appropriate to use in these evaluations because they have the best potential to minimize the effects of upwind transport and photochemistry. Emissions are generally high, mixing depths are low, winds are usually light, and photochemical reactions are minimized.

 

Conduct a second evaluation following the incorporation of the recommendations made in the first evaluation, in order to verify improvement.

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AMBIENT DATA ISSUES

  • Select locations dominated by "nearby" sources; use data collected at type II PAMS sites.


Type II PAMS sites are established to monitor the magnitude and type of precursor emissions in the area where maximum precursor emissions representative of the MSA/CMSA are expected to impact.

  • Select early morning data (e.g., 0700-0900 LT) before photochemistry takes place.
  • Validate and process the data.
  • Select sampling periods with ambient NMOC, CO, and NOx concentrations ³ pre-established criteria in order to maximize the influence of nearby emissions.
  • Example:


NMHC concentrations ³ 200 ppbC
NOx concentrations ³ 8 ppb

  • Analyze meteorological data to determine the emission areas and elevated point sources that may influence the ambient measurements.

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EMISSION INVENTORY ISSUES

  • Evaluate emission inventories at locations dominated by "nearby" source.
  • Process the emissions data. Examples of emission inventory processing software available: EPS 2.0 and EMS-95.


Emission inventories used in top-down evaluations should be hourly, gridded, and chemically speciated into about 900 individual chemical species and species groups.

  • In processing the emission inventory data, consider only the chemical species capable of being detected by the ambient measurement systems. The adjusted NMOC emissions usually include C2-C10 alkanes, alkenes, alkynes, aromatics, and C1-C3 carbonyls. The emissions of alcohols, ethers, acetates, glycols, esters, formates, organic amines, organic oxides, phenols, organic acids, C3+ carbonyls, terpenes, C11+ hydrocarbons, and halogenated species should usually be excluded. The emissions of the chemical species capable of being detected by the ambient measurement system usually contribute about 75% of the total emissions in the inventory.

  • Convert emissions from mass to molar basis for a valid comparison between ambient data and the emission inventory.

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EMISSION INVENTORY PROCESSING SOFTWARE

EPS 2.0

  • EPS 2.0 is a Fortran-based system recommended by EPA’s OAQPS for SIP modeling demonstrations.

EMS-95

  • EMS-95 is a SAS-based system.

 

Caution: Only actual chemical species should be used for the evaluation. An emission inventory speciated using CB-IV lumped species is not well-suited for top-down evaluations. EPS 2.0 and EMS-95 cannot currently speciate hourly gridded emission inventories in the format required for top-down evaluations. Additional processors need to be developed to speciate the hourly gridded inventories.

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ANALYSES

  • Compare ambient data with emission estimates from different areas surrounding or near the monitoring site. The selection of emission areas will depend on the meteorological conditions.
  • Compare ambient data with emission estimates with and without elevated point-source emissions. The inclusion of elevated-point source emissions will depend on the meteorological conditions.
  • Perform time-series analyses.
  • Perform day-specific and weekday/weekend statistical analyses.

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Figure 1.

Emission Inventory Areas Surrounding A Site

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CASE STUDY: EVALUATION OF THE EMISSION INVENTORY
FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS

Analysis Objective

Evaluate the consistency of a day-specific gridded, hourly, speciated emission inventory for the southeast Texas area with ambient NMHC and NOx data.

Approach

  • Compare 0100-0800 CST ambient measurements at Clinton and Galleria, TX with nearby emissions for the August 17-21, 1993 episode:
  • - NMHC/NOx

    - Composition of species groups and individual species

    - Reactivity of species groups and individual species

    - Analysis of individual emission source categories

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Figure 2.

Surface Hydrocarbon Samoling Locations for Southeast Texas

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Figure 3.

Ambient NMHC Concentrations at Galleria, Texas - 1993

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Figure 4.

Ambient NOx Concentrations at Galleria, Texas - 1993

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Figure 5.

Ambient NMHC Concentrations at Clinton, Texas - 1993

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Figure 6.

Ambient NOx Concentrations at Clinton, Texas - 1993

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Figure 7.

Clinton, Texas Wind Speed - 1993

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NMHC emissions capable of being detected by the measurement system and NOx emissions by source category from 0100-0800 CST for the 9x9 cell

(18x18 km) area surrounding Clinton (Houston), TX. (1993 COAST emission inventory data, TNRCC)

 NMHC and NOx Emissions by Source Category (Kg/hr)

 Begin Hour
(CST)
Area  Mobile  Low-Level Points  Elevated Points  Biogenics  Total

 NMHC

  1

 162

 86

 1734

 535

 0

 2517

 2

 162

 65

 1730

 533

 0

 2490

 3

 162

 91

 1725

 531

 0

 2509

 4

188

275

1721

528

0

2713

5

585

742

1751

529

3

3610

6

887

1115

1784

550

128

4464

7

1731

993

1840

568

472

5604

NOx

1

377

282

77

1982

1

2719

2

377

216

77

1982

1

2653

3

377

305

77

1964

1

2723

4

377

912

77

1979

1

3345

5

410

2500

77

1979

1

4967

6

1555

3776

77

2004

1

7413

7

1566

2697

91

2137

1

6492

NMHC emissions capable of being detected by the measurement system and NOx emissions by source category from 0100-0800 CST for the 9x9 cell

(18x18 km) area surrounding Galleria (Houston), TX. (1993 COAST emission inventory data, TNRCC)

Begin Hour
(CST)

NMHC and NOx Emissions by Source Category (Kg/hr)

 

 

 Area

Mobile

Low-Level Points

Elevated Points

Biogenics

Total

NMHC

 1

177

141

72

11

0

401

2

177

104

72

11

0

364

3

177

146

72

11

0

406

4

209

445

72

11

0

737

5

711

1187

72

11

3

1984

6

1021

1798

80

12

130

3041

7

2053

1700

97

13

475

4339

NOx

1

380

418

0

10

2

810

 2

380

315

0

10

2

707

3

380

448

0

10

2

840

4

380

1347

0

12

2

1742

5

407

3646

0

11

2

4066

 6

1548

5349

0

11

2

6911

 7

1562

4076

0

14

2

5655

Weight-percent contributions of NMHC emissions capable of being detected by the ambient measurement system to the total emissions in the inventory from 0100-0800 CST for the 9x9 cell (18x18 km) area surrounding Clinton and Galleria sites in Houston, TX. (1993 COAST emission inventory data, TNRCC)

 Begin Hour
(CST)

Weight-Percent Contribution

 

Galleria

Clinton

1

43

66

2

42

64

 3

 45

65

4

56

66

5

68

68

6

70

69

7

69

69

The emissions of the NMHC considered in the evaluation contribute up to 70 percent of the total emissions in the inventory.

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Figure 8.

0600 CST NMHC Emissions Contributions - 1993

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Figure 9.

0600 CST NOx Emissions Contributions - 1993

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Figure 10.

Galleria, TX - NMHC/NOx Comparison Chart

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Figure 11.

Galleria, TX - NMHC/NOx Comparison Chart

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Figure 12.

Clinton, TX - NMHC/NOx Comparison Chart

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Effective plume heights for the elevated point sources located in the 81-cell (18x18 km) area surrounding Clinton and Galleria sites in Houston, TX. The effective plume heights were calculated using the Briggs Effective Plume Height Algorithm with Pasquill Stability Class of 5, wind speed of 1.5 m/s, temperature of 297 K, and pressure of 960 mb.

Effective Plume Height
(meters)

Clinton

Galleria

Min

5

3

25th %

41

40

Median

72

42

75th %

104

50

90th %

135

148

Max

298

197

No. of Sources

401

54

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Figure 13.

Clinton, TX - NMHC/NOx Comparison Chart

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Figure 14.

Galleria, TX - NMHC/NOx Comparison Chart

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Figure 15.

Clinton, TX - NMHC/NOx Comparison Chart

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August 19 0600 CST contributions of the various source categories (in mole percent NOx and mole C percent NMHC) to the emissions of paraffins, olefins, and aromatic compounds for the 9x9 cell (18x18 km) area surrounding Clinton and Galleria sites in Houston, TX. (1993 COAST emission inventory data, TNRCC)

 

  Mole Carbon Percent by Source Category

 Site

Area

Mobile

Low-Level Points

Elevated Points

Biogenics

Paraffins

Galleria

29

67

3

1

0

 Clinton

14

22

51

13

0

Olefins

Galleria

14

55

1

0

30

Clinton

11

23

27

19

20

Aromatic Compounds

 Galleria

51

45

3

1

0

Clinton

35

23

33

9

0

 

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Figure 16.

Galleria, TX - 0600 CST Composition of Species Groups

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Figure 17.

Clinton, TX - 0600 CST Composition of Species Groups

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Figure 18.

Galleria, TX - Ambient and Emission Inventory Composition

Comparison of the 0600 CST ambient- and total emissions-derived relative compositions of the most abundant chemical species for the 9x9 cell (18x18 km) area surrounding Galeria (Houston), TX. Note that the compositions of ethane, propane, and isopentane in the emission inventory are significantly lower than the ambient composition whereas the compositions of n-butane, isoprene, and toluene are significantly higher. (Ambient data, Level 1 AIRS; 1993 COAST emission inventory data, TNRCC)   

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Figure 19.

Clinton, TX - Ambient and Emission Inventory Composition

Comparison of the 0600 CST ambient- and total emissions-derived relative compositions of the most abundant chemical species for the 9x9 cell (18x18 km) area surrounding Clinton (Houston), TX. Note that the compositions of ethane, acetylene, isopentane and cyclopentane in the emission inventory are significantly lower than the ambient composition whereas the compositions of n-butane, isoprene, and benzene are significantly higher. (Ambient data, Level 1 AIRS; 1993 COAST emission inventory data, TNRCC)   

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Figure 20.

Galleria, TX - 0600 CST Reactivity of Species Groups

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Figure 21.

Clinton, TX - 0600 CST Reactivity of Species Groups

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Figure 22.

Galleria, TX - Ambient and Emission Inventory Reactivity - All Sources

Comparison of the 0600 CST ambient- and total emissions-derived reactivities of the most abundant chemical species for the 9x9 cell (18x18) area surrounding Galleria (Houston), TX. Note that the reactivities of propylene, 2-pentene, and 3-methyl-1-butene in the emission inventory are significantly lower than the ambient reactivities whereas the reactivities of isoprene and toluene are significantly higher. (Ambient data, Level 1 AIRS; 1993 COAST emission inventory data, TNRCC)

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Figure 23.

Clinton, TX - Ambient and Emission Inventory Reactivity - All Sources

Comparison of the 0600 CST ambient- and total emissions-derived reactivities of the most abundant chemical species for the 9x9 cell (18x18 km) area surrounding Clinton (Houston), TX. Note that the reactivities of 2-pentene and 3-methyl-1-butene in the emission inventory are significantly lower than the ambient reactivities whereas the reactivities of isoprene and n-butane are significantly higher. (Ambient data, Level 1 AIRS; 1993 COAST emission inventory data, TNRCC)  

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Figure 24.

Galleria, TX - Ambient and Emission Inventory Reactivity - Mobile Sources

Comparison of the 0600 CST ambient- and mobile source emissions-derived relative compositions of the most abundant chemical species for the 9x9 cell (18x18 km) area surrounding Galleria (Houston), TX. Note that the compositions of n-butane and benzene in the emission inventory are significantly higher than the ambient composition. (Ambient data, Level 1 AIRS; 1993 COAST emission inventory data, TNRCC)     

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Figure 25.

Clinton, TX - Ambient and Emission Inventory Reactivity - Point Sources

Comparison of the 0600 CST ambient- and point source emissions-derived relative compositions of the most abundant chemical species for the 9x9 cell (18x18 km) area surrounding Clinton (Houston), TX. Note that the compositions of n-butane, isobutane, n-hexane, and benzene in the emission inventory are significantly higher than the ambient composition whereas the compositions of acetylene, ethane, isopentane and cyclopentane are significantly lower. (Ambient data, Level 1 AIRS; 1993 COAST emission inventory data, TNRCC)    

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 UNCERTAINTY ISSUES

 The uncertainties associated with top-down emission inventory evaluations can be divided into three categories:

EMISSION INVENTORY UNCERTAINTY ISSUES

  • Spatial and temporal allocation of activities
  • Adjustment of emission rates for temperature and day-specific activities
  • Assignment of accurate and representative source speciation profiles

AMBIENT MEASUREMENTS UNCERTAINTY ISSUES

  • The representativeness of the monitoring sites
  • The influence of lower quantifiable limits and precision
  • The identification, misidentification, or lack of identification of all important species
  • Potential sampling or handling losses of total mass or individual species

COMPARISONS-RELATED UNCERTAINTY ISSUES

  • The matching of emissions and ambient NMOC species
  • The temporal matching of the emissions and ambient data
  • The spatial matching of the emissions and ambient data
  • Meteorological factors such as wind speed and direction and mixing height
  • The level of ambient background NMOC and NOx concentrations
  • Chemical reactions

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SUMMARY

Analysis   Available Tool(s)  Data Requirements
Ambient Data Retrieval AIRS Type II PAMS measurements
Ambient Data Validation and Processing VOCDat
Statistical Software
Spreadsheets
Meteorological data for assessment of wind sectors
 Emissions Processing Programming
Spreadsheets
EPS 2.0 EMBR E.I. output data files
EMS-95 E.I. output data files
 Comparisons Spreadsheets
Graphics
  

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E.I. EVALUATION REFERENCES

Carter W.P.L. (1991) Development of ozone reactivity scales for volatile organic compounds Report prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, EPA-600/3-91-050.

Carter W.P.L. (1994) Development of ozone reactivity scales for volatile organic compounds. J. Air & Waste Manag. Assoc. 44, 881-899.

Chinkin L.R., Korc M.E., and Janssen M. (1994) Comparison of emission inventory and ambient concentration ratios of NMOC, NOx, and CO in the Lake Michigan Air Quality Region. Paper presented at the "The Emission Inventory: Applications and Improvement" A&WMA International Specialty Conference, Research Triangle Park, NC, November.

EMS95-Developed by Alpine Geophysics. Contact Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium, 2350 E. Devon Ave., Suite 242, Des Plaines, IL 60018 (847)296-2181.

EPS 2.0 - User’s guide for the Urban Airshed Model volume iv: User’s manual for the emissions processor system 2.0. Part A: Core Fortran System. U.S. EPA Office of Air Quality Planning & Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711. EPA-450/4-90-007D(R) June 1992.

Fujita E.M., Croes B.E, Bennett C.L., Lawson D.R., Lurmann F.W., and Main H.H. (1992) Comparison of emission inventory and ambient concentration ratios of CO, NMOG, and NOx in California's South Coast Air Basin. J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc. 42, 264-276.

Fujita E.M. (1995) Evaluation of the emissions inventory in the South Coast Air Basin. In Proceedings of the Fifth CRC On-Road Vehicle Emissions Workshop, San Diego, CA, April 3-5, Coordinating Research Council, Inc., Atlanta, GA, pp. 1.17-1.33.

Korc M.E., Roberts P.T., Chinkin L.R., and Main H.H. (1993) Comparison of emission inventory and ambient concentration ratios of NMOC, NOx and CO in the Lake Michigan Air Quality Region. Final report prepared for Lake Michigan Air Directors Association, Des Plaines, IL by Sonoma Technology, Inc., Santa Rosa, CA, October.

Korc M.E., Jones C.M., Chinkin L.R., Main H.H., and Roberts P.T. (1995) Use of PAMS data to evaluate the Texas COAST emission inventory. Final report prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC by Sonoma Technology, Inc., Santa Rosa, CA, December.

Lurmann F.W. and Main H.H. (1992) Analysis of the ambient VOC data collected in the Southern California Air Quality Study. Report prepared for California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, CA by Sonoma Technology, Inc., Santa Rosa, CA, STI-99120-1161-FR, Contract No. A823-130, February.

Magliano K.L. (1996) Descriptive analysis and reconciliation of emissions and ambient hydrocarbon data. Draft SJVAQS/AUSPEX technical topic team #5 report prepared by California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, CA.

Main H.H., Roberts P.T., Chinkin L.R., and Korc M.E. (1997) PAMS data analysis workshop: illustrating the use of PAMS data to support ozone control programs. Prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, presented at Camp Mabry for Texas Natural Resources Conservation Commission, Austin, TX by Sonoma Technology, Inc., Santa Rosa, CA, STI-997160-1704-WD6, April.

Pierson W.R., Gertler A.W., Robinson N.F., Sagebiel J.C., Zielinska B., Bishop G.A., Stedman D.H., Zweidinger R.B., and Ray W.D. (1996). Atmos. Environ. 30, 2233-2256.

Stoeckenius T.E., Ligocki M.P., Shepard S.B., and Iwamiya R.K. (1994a) Analysis of PAMS data: application to summer 1993 Houston and Baton Rouge data. Draft report prepared by Systems Applications International, San Rafael, CA, SYSAPP94-94/115d, November.

Yarwood G., Grey H.A., Ligocki M.P., and Whitten G.Z. (1994) Evaluation of ambient species profiles, ambient versus modeled NMHC:NOx and CO:NOx ratios, and source receptor analysis. Final report prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources, Research Triangle Park, NC by Systems Application International, San Rafael, CA, SYSAPP94-94/081, September.

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