Southwest Impacts & Adaptation
On This Page
- Impacts on Water Resources
- Impacts on Recreation
- Impacts on Forests and Other Ecosystems
- Impacts on Human Health
- Increasing temperatures and more frequent and severe droughts will likely worsen existing competition for water resources.
- Drought, wildfire, changes in species' geographic ranges, invasive species, and pests will likely threaten native Southwest forests and ecosystems.
- Climate change may make it difficult for the Southwest's growing cities to attain air quality standards and meet energy and water demands.
- Climate change poses threats to the region's native peoples, infrastructure, agriculture, and recreational activities.
- Climate Change and Water: Southwest
- Climate Change and Water: Montane Region
- EPA Region 6 (including the Southwest states of NM and TX)
- EPA Region 8 (including the Southwest states of CO and UT)
- EPA Region 9 (including the Southwest states of AZ, CA, and NV)
The Southwest is bordered by the Pacific Ocean to the west, the Rocky Mountains to the east, and Mexico to the south. The region includes the cities of Albuquerque, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Denver, San Diego, Los Angeles, Sacramento, and San Francisco, among others. The region is home to approximately 50 million residents and is growing quickly.  The population growth in each state in this region exceeded the national average growth rate between 2000 and 2010. Several states, such as Nevada (35.1%), Arizona (24.6%), and Utah (23.8%) experienced population growth rates more than double the national average of 9.7%. 
There is a wide range of elevation and climate types across the region. Elevation ranges from valleys that are below sea level to mountains that have some of the highest peaks in the continental United States. The region is generally drier than other regions of the United States. It includes deserts in the southern portion, such as the Mojave Desert. Areas of northern California, the Rocky Mountains, and Sierra Nevada tend to get more precipitation and snow. Additionally, the Central Valley in California is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the country.
The climate of the Southwest is changing. Over the last century, the average annual temperature has increased about 1.5°F. Average annual temperature is projected to rise an additional 2.5-8°F by the end of the century.  Warming in the Southwest is projected to be greatest in the summer. 
Warming has already contributed to decreases in spring snowpack and Colorado River flows, which are an important source of water for the region.  Future warming is projected to produce more severe droughts in the region, with further reductions in water supplies. Future water scarcity will be compounded by the region's rapid population growth, which is the highest in the nation. 
Impacts on Water Resources
A reliable water supply is crucial for the people, agriculture, energy, and ecosystems of the Southwest. The region's water supplies are already constrained under current climate conditions. Water allocations in the region, some of which were agreed upon almost a century ago, have become difficult to meet. Meanwhile, groundwater pumping is already lowering water tables. Future climate change is projected to worsen these conditions. 
Increasing temperatures are projected to further reduce snowpack, which will lead to reduced streamflows, especially in the spring.
- Springtime precipitation is likely to decrease significantly, making it more difficult to meet water demands during the summer,  when conditions are typically the driest.
- Climate change will likely stress groundwater-based systems and result in decreased groundwater recharge. 
- While severe droughts are already part of the Southwest climate, human-induced climate change will likely result in more frequent and more severe droughts with associated increases in wildfires. 
- Projected temperature increases, river-flow reductions, dwindling reservoirs, and rapid population growth will increase the competition for water resources across sectors, states, tribes, and even between the United States and Mexico. This could potentially lead to conflicts.
For more information on climate change impacts on water, please visit the Water Resources page.
Flood Risk in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta
Flooding threatens humans and infrastructure in low-lying areas such as the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta system. This region, which extends from San Francisco almost to Sacramento, is entirely below sea level. Climate changes are projected to more than double the risk of Delta flooding events by the middle of the century and cause an eight-fold increase by the end of the century. 
Warmer temperatures will impact the amount of snowpack and timing of snowmelt in the mountains of California, which provide the freshwater resources that flow into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Climate change is projected to increase flood risk, as more rapid and earlier snowmelt in the spring increases runoff. More frequent flooding in the region is likely to create water quality and supply issues.
Map of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta
Source: USGS (2010)
Impacts on Recreation
Increasing temperatures and decreasing snow cover will affect economically important winter activities in the Southwest such as skiing, snowshoeing, and snowmobiling. Climate change is projected to result in later seasonal snow, less snow coverage, earlier wet snow avalanches, and generally shorter snow seasons.  Ski seasons are projected to be 3-6 weeks shorter by the 2050s and 7-15 weeks shorter by the 2080s in the Sierra Nevada of California. 
For more information on climate change impacts on infrastructure and economy, please visit the Society page.
Impacts on Forests and Other Ecosystems
Projected increases in drought, wildfire, invasive species, and pests, as well as changes in the geographic ranges of species, will likely threaten native forests and other ecosystems in the Southwest. 
- More severe drought may threaten forest populations in the region (see text box for more information about piñon pine trees).
Piñon Pine Die-off 
In 2000-2003, the combination of severe drought and unusually high temperatures led to significant die-off of piñon pines in the Four Corners region of the Southwest. Piñon pines are very drought tolerant and have survived dry periods in the past. However, in 2000-2003, high temperatures made drought conditions worse, making the piñons more susceptible to pine bark beetle attacks. In some areas, more than 90% of the piñons died. This resulted in a major change in the structure and function of the ecosystem over a large area. The piñon die-off is an example of how climate change can interact with other non-climate stresses to push a species past a threshold beyond which it cannot survive.
- Increasing temperatures and related reductions in spring snowpack and soil moisture are projected to increase the area burned by wildfire. Climate change could also cause subtle shifts in the way fires spread, which could result in "runaway fires" that rekindle after appearing under control. This risk may be compounded by urban development, which could worsen wildfire risk to population centers as they encroach on forested areas.
- Climate change is projected to cause shifts in ecosystem distribution as species move northward and to higher elevations. These shifts include reductions in existing high-elevation ecosystems such as alpine forests and tundra, as well as expansions of grasslands. In California, over 3,000 native plant species are expected to face reductions in the geographic range within which they can survive. Other stressors which, when compounded by climate change, will hinder species' ability to migrate or adapt to new conditions include: the expansion of human development, air and water pollution, invasive species, streamflow reductions, and the region's mountainous terrain. 
- Changes in species' geographic ranges, climate change, and invasive species will likely threaten iconic landscapes, such as that of the Saguaro cactus in the Sonoran Desert.  By shifting native shrubs and cacti northward, an invasive species of grass from Africa may turn fire-proof desert areas into fire-prone grassland. The non-native grass is also able to spread quickly after fires, pushing out native species such as the saguaro cactus. 
- Climate change will add to the pressures already threatening the Southwest's two designated "biodiversity hotspots" — the California Floristic Province and the Madrean Pine-Oak Woodlands. 
For more information on climate change impacts on forests, please visit the Forests page.
To learn more about climate change impacts on ecosystems, please visit the Ecosystems page.
Impacts on Human Health
Warming temperatures will likely make it more difficult for the Southwest's rapidly growing cities to meet air quality standards. For example, more than 90% of California's population lives in areas that violate state air quality standards for ground-level ozone or small particles, with air pollutants causing an estimated 8,800 deaths and over $1 billion in health care costs every year.  Warmer temperatures are expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of conditions that are conducive to air pollution formation, further exacerbating air quality issues in the Southwest. These conditions threaten the health and well-being of people who suffer from respiratory ailments, such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. 
For more information on climate change impacts on human health, please visit the Health page.
Impacts on Native Americans
The Southwest is home to many Native American communities. With changing climate conditions, including increased temperatures and severe droughts, Native Americans living on reservations could suffer from limited access to water resources. Since reservation lands were established and set aside in historic agreements, Native Americans living on reservations may be unable to relocate. They may have limited recourse if reservation water supplies become scarce or contaminated. 
For more information on climate change impacts on infrastructure and economy, please visit the Society page.
Impacts on Energy
Increasing temperatures are expected to threaten the reliability of electricity and water supplies in the Southwest's cities. Increased air conditioning demand during more intense and longer-lasting heat waves, limitations in the capacity of hydroelectric power systems, and increasing severity of droughts would impact the supply and distribution of electricity. These impacts are expected to be compounded by the region's rapid population growth. 
For more information on climate change impacts on energy, please visit the Energy page.
Impacts on Agriculture
Though climate change can benefit some crops through less freezing and increased productivity, warming beyond modest increases will likely harm the region's agriculture. California grows several temperature-sensitive specialty crops, such as apricots, almonds, artichokes, figs, kiwis, olives, walnuts, and wine grapes. Increased temperatures may make the regions that currently grow these crops unviable.  The Central Valley in California produces a significant portion of the nation's food. Crop failure in this region could impact the food supply and the price of food.
For more information on climate change impacts on agriculture and food supply, please visit the Agriculture and Food Supply page.
The Rocky Mountains
The Rocky Mountains stretch from New Mexico to Canada. Mountain ecosystems, particularly the Northern Rockies, are sensitive to climate change. The high elevations of the Rockies have experienced temperature increases three times the global average. The Rocky Mountains provide habitats for unique plants and animals, including endangered species like the grizzly bear and bull trout.  In addition, runoff from the Rocky Mountains fills some of the nation's large rivers, such as the Colorado River. These rivers supply water for a large portion of the Southwest. Future runoff for the Colorado River basin and many of the other rivers in the Southwest is projected to decline with future warming. 
Warmer temperatures in the Rocky Mountains are resulting in a variety of impacts. For instance, early snow melts encourage premature plant development. When the buds are exposed to frost they do not seed properly. As a result, warmer conditions lead to fewer wildflowers during the spring. 
To learn about the impact of mountain pine beetles on forests in Colorado, visit the Forest Impacts page.
The Ecosystem Impacts page features information about how climate change impacts the American Pika in the Rocky Mountains.
To learn more about what the Southwest is doing to adapt to climate change impacts, please visit the adaptation section of the Southwest Impacts and Adaptation page.
 USGCRP (2009). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States . Karl, T.R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson (eds.). United States Global Change Research Program. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA.
 Field, C.B., L.D. Mortsch, M. Brklacich, D.L. Forbes, P. Kovacs, J.A. Patz, S.W. Running and M.J. Scott (2007). North America. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability . Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
 NRC (2008). Ecological Impacts of Climate Change . National Research Council. National Academies Press, Washington, DC, USA.
Adaptation Examples in the Southwest
On This Page
- Phoenix, Arizona incorporates climate change into water management and urban design
- Hualapai Tribe prepares for future water shortages
- The San Francisco Bay, California adapts to sea level rise
- Executive leadership in California encourages climate change preparation
- The City of Phoenix, Arizona is integrating climate change into water supply projections and is exploring alternative city designs and building materials to help reduce temperatures.
- The Hualapai Tribe in Arizona is constructing new water infrastructure and removing invasive species to protect their water supply and local habitats.
- Communities around the San Francisco Bay are developing plans to protect businesses, infrastructure, and ecosystems from rising sea levels.
- California developed Cal-Adapt, an interactive, web-based tool that allows users to learn about the climate impacts and vulnerabilities in California communities.
- The EPA is working with communities across the Southwest to understand and plan for the interactions between climate change and water resources.
Reports and Related Links
- Arizona Department of Water Resources. Drought Program
- City of Tucson's Framework for Advancing Sustainability
- Adapting to Rising Tides (ART) (PDF)
- City of Berkeley: Climate Action Plan (PDF)
- San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission. 2009. Living with a Rising Bay: Vulnerability and Adaptation in San Francisco Bay and on its Shoreline (PDF)
- Bay Area Ecosystems City of Chula Vista Climate Change Consortium
- Climate Change Handbook for Regional Water Planning
- City of Chula Vista Climate Adaptation Strategies Implementation Plans (PDF)
- 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy (PDF)
- Preparing for the Effects of Climate Change — A Strategy for California
- Colorado Climate Action Plan (PDF)
- Western Water Assessment's Colorado Climate Preparedness Project — Final Report (PDF)
- The City of Boulder Community Planning and Sustainability: Climate Adaptation Planning
- State of Utah's Blue Ribbon Advisory Council on Climate Change Report, Department of Environmental Quality
American Indian Tribes
Federal and Regional
- EPA Region 6 (including the Southwest states of NM and TX)
- EPA Regional Office 8 (including the Southwest states of CO and UT)
- EPA Regional Office 9 (including the Southwest states of AZ, CA, and NV)
- NRC America's Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
- Western Governors' Association Climate Change Initiative and Report
- Western Water Assessment, University of Colorado
- Georgetown Climate Center: Adaptation Clearinghouse
States, regions, and local governments are preparing for climate change in the Southwest, an area that spans a significant range of elevation and climate types. The region will likely face a wide variety of impacts from climate change, including more frequent and severe droughts, longer and more intense heat waves, and sea level rise. Learn more about climate change impacts in the Southwest here.
Below are examples of ongoing efforts to adapt to climate change impacts in the Southwest at the local, state, and federal level. The links, following the examples, provide additional information about a number of adaptation plans, reports, and studies specific to the region. Both the examples and links are intended to be illustrative — they are not intended to be comprehensive.
Phoenix, Arizona incorporates climate change into water management and urban design
Phoenix, Arizona's large population and warm, dry climate make the city particularly vulnerable to droughts and extreme heat. Phoenix is taking several steps to ensure sustainable water supplies, to protect populations that are vulnerable to extreme heat, and to adopt land use designs that minimize the city's absorption of heat. For example, Phoenix uses renewable surface water supplies and reserves groundwater for use during extended droughts.  The city is also incorporating climate change projections into drought planning and creating a task force to redesign the downtown core to minimize the way buildings trap heat and increase local temperatures.  
For more information about adaptation strategies to deal with water shortages, visit the Water Impacts & Adaptation page. For more information about adapting to warmer urban conditions, please visit the Health Impacts & Adaptation page.
Hualapai Tribe prepares for future water shortages 
The Hualapai Reservation is located in the mountains of northwestern Arizona. In 2006, the Hualapai Department of Natural Resources partnered with the National EPA — Tribal Science Council to tackle the climate change impacts that will likely affect the Hualapai people. The tribe is most concerned with temperature increases and precipitation decreases that would reduce the availability of water — a resource that is important to the tribe's economy, environment, health, and culture. The Hualapai Tribe has taken several steps to help ensure freshwater availability even in times of limited precipitation. For example, the tribe constructed water catchments to store water on the Reservation, removed non-native tamarisk plants that are believed to disrupt the ecosystem, and built new wells and water pipelines.
To learn more about adaptation strategies to deal with water shortages, please visit the Water Impacts & Adaptation page.
The San Francisco Bay, California adapts to sea level rise
According to the 2011 Bay Conservation Development Commission (BCDC) assessment, the San Francisco Bay Area is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise.  There are several agencies and communities in the Bay Area that are concerned about the impacts of sea level rise on ecosystems, the economy, and infrastructure. For example:
- The Adapting to Rising Tides (ART) program is working with community officials and stakeholders to identify climate change impacts and develop feasible strategies to manage risks to Bay Area communities. Cities like Hayward and Berkeley are developing for impacts, including those related to sea level rise.
- The Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) developed a partnership with the Netherlands to learn effective strategies to deal with sea level rise in low-lying areas. 
Executive leadership in California encourages climate change preparation
In 2005, the California Governor mandated the biennial production of a Climate Change Impacts Assessment that identifies the potential impacts of climate change and offers adaptation strategies.  Additionally, California has an inter-agency Climate Action Team (CAT) that is responsible for implementing both mitigation and adaptation efforts. In 2009, the California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) released a Climate Adaptation Strategy (PDF) that recommends actions state agencies can take to adapt to state sector impacts. Since the release of the Climate Action Strategy, the state formed a Climate Adaptation Advisory Panel that released a report, Preparing for the Effects of Climate Change — A Strategy for California. The report includes adaptation recommendations for sea level rise, water supply, and forest wildfires. The state has also developed Cal-Adapt, an interactive tool that makes climate data, trends, maps, and information about impacts easily accessible.
Denver adapts to extreme wildfire and precipitation events
In 1996, a fire burned 11,900 acres around Buffalo Creek — a tributary to the upper South Platte River, which is the main source of the Denver, Colorado water supply. Two months following the fire, heavy thunderstorms caused flash floods in the burned area. This series of events washed more sediment into the reservoir than had accumulated in the previous 13 years. The emergency cleanup costs totaled nearly $1 million, chronic cleanup costs due to increased turbidity totaled $250,000 in water treatment costs per year, and dredging was estimated to cost $15 to $20 million over 10 years. To mitigate future damage, the utility installed sensors to provide alerts upstream debris and sediment. Additionally, DenverWater and the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region will work together to restore more than 38,000 acres of National Forest lands through mechanical thinning, fuel reduction, creating fire breaks, erosion control, decommissioning roads, and reforestation. 
The City of Chula Vista implements adaptation strategies
The City of Chula Vista's Climate Change Working Group is implementing 11 City Council-approved Climate Adaptation Strategies (PDF). The decision made Chula Vista the first local government in Southern California to adopt a standalone, comprehensive climate adaptation plan. Adaptation strategies in the plan include measures to expand the city's urban forests, incorporate "cool" or reflective roofs, promote gray water and other water reuse, and design future development and municipal projects to be resilient to sea level rise.
EPA helps the Southwest prepare for drought and cope with water supply shortages
Maintaining a reliable water supply is a critical challenge in the Southwest. Several efforts to address this challenge are underway.
- EPA Region 8 has a "Knowledge Building Series" to educate stakeholders about climate change and a strategic plan to address issues such as water supply and water quality.
- EPA Region 9 is helping communities strengthen water conservation programs and improve their infrastructure. To promote the expansion of water supplies EPA Region 9 has created a website about water recycling.
- The Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) Drought Program conducts drought monitoring, promotes state agency coordination of drought measures, and facilitates the development of local drought impact groups and community water systems.