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MAIA Land-Use Change

A Regional Approach to Projecting Land-Use Change
and Resulting Ecological Vulnerability

Jackon, L.E. 1, S. L. Bird 2, R. W. Matheny 3, R. V. O'Neill 4, D. White 5, K. C. Boesch 6 and J. L. Koviach 7

This study explores ecological vulnerability to land-use change in the mid-Atlantic region by spatially extrapolating land and economic development, and overlaying these projections with maps of ecological indicators. As individual extrapolations have a high degree of uncertainty, five methods with different theoretical bases are employed. Confidence in projections is increased for counties targeted by two or more projection methods. This approach provides a comprehensive overview of potential regional development, leading to an objective prioritization of high-risk areas. The objective is to inform local planning and decision-making so that regional and cumulative ecological degradation are minimized.

1 U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC
2 U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Athens, GA
3 U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC
4 Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge, TN
5 U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Corvallis, OR
6 Engelhardt, Hammer and Associates, Tampa, FL (analyses performed while at the University of North Carolina, Department of City and Regional Planning, Chapel Hill, NC)
7 University of North Carolina, Department of City and Regional Planning, Chapel Hill, NC

Maps used in support of this study are offered below. "Clicking" on any small map below will display an enlarged version of that particular map suitable for printing.

Resource Economics Model Urban Growth Model
Resource Economics Model Map Icon Analysis by David Wear, USDA Forest Service, and Ron Methany, U.S. EPA (Research Triangle Park, NC) Urban Growth Model Map Icon Developed by Keith Clarke, UC-Santa Barbara. Applied to MAIA by William Acevedo, et al., US Geological Survey. (1-km pixel resolution of model is shown aggregated to county level.
Land Demand Model Projected New Employment
Land Demand Model Map Icon Analysis by Sandy Bird, U.S. EPA (Athens, GA) Projected New Employment Map Icon Prepared by Kristin Boesch, UNC Dept. of City and Regional Planning
Planned Highway Construction Contiguous Forest
Planned Highway Construction Map Icon Prepared by Lockheed-Martin and OAO Corp. (Road plans within major metropolitan areas were excluded from study.) Contiguous Forest Map Icon Source: Jones, K.B. et al. 1997. An Ecological Assessment of the United States: Mid-Atlantic Region: A Landscape Atlas. EPA/600/R-97/130. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.
Threatened & Endangered Species Native Amphibian Species Richness
Threatened and Endangered Species Map IconSource: The Nature Conservancy Exit EPA Native Amphibian Species Richness Map IconAnalysis by Denis White, U.S. EPA, (Corvalis OR) and The Nature Conservancy Exit EPA
Native Fish Species Richness Native Reptile Species Richness
Native Fish Species Richness Map IconAnalysis by Denis White, U.S. EPA, (Corvalis OR) and The Nature Conservancy Exit EPA Native Reptile Species Richness Map Icon Analysis by Denis White, U.S. EPA, (Corvalis OR) and The Nature Conservancy Exit EPA
Non-Indigenous Bird Species Richness Non-Indigenous Fish Species Richness
Non-Indigenous Bird Species Richness Map Icon Analysis by Denis White, U.S. EPA, (Corvalis OR) and The Nature Conservancy Exit EPA Non-Indigenous Fish Species Richness Map Icon Analysis by Denis White, U.S. EPA, (Corvalis OR) and The Nature Conservancy Exit EPA

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