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Mayer, Foster L., Mark R. Ellersieck, Gary F. Krause, Kai Sun, Gunhee Lee and Denny R. Buckler. 2002. Time-Concentration-Effect Models in Predicting Chronic Toxicity from Acute Toxicity Data. In: Risk Assessment with Time to Event Models. Mark Crane, Michael C. Newman, Peter F. Chapman, and John Fenlon, Editors. Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton, FL. Pp. 39-67. (ERL,GB 1126).
Methods for modeling aquatic toxicity data based on linear regression, multifactor probit analysis, and accelerated life testing were developed in which simultaneous consideration is given to concentration, degree of response, and time course of effect. A consistent endpoint (lethality) and degree of response were used. These methods predict chronic toxicity from acute toxicity data. The methods were validated against results of chronic toxicity tests. When the techniques were applied to a data base of 18 chemicals and 7 species of fish, predicted chronic no-effect concentrations were highly accurate greater than 85% of the time. Limitations of the methods are presented. |
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