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Mayer, Foster L., Gary F. Krause, Denny R. Buckler, Mark R. Ellersieck and Gunhee Lee. 1994. Predicting Chronic Lethality of Chemicals to Fishes from Acute Toxicity Test Data: Concepts and Linear Regression Analysis. EPA/600/J-94/281. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 13(4):671-678. (ERL,GB 764). (Avail. from NTIS, Springfield, VA: PB94-191079)

A comprehensive approach to predicting chronic lethality from acute toxicity data was developed in which simultaneous consideration is given to concentration, degree of response, and time course of effect. A consistent endpoint (lethality) and degree of response (0%) were used to compare acute and chronic tests. Predicted no-effect concentrations were highly accurate 92% of the time (within a factor of 2.0 of the limits of the maximum acceptable toxicant concentrations for lethality) and did vary by more than a factor of 4.8 when the technique was applied to a data base of 18 chemicals and 7 fish species. Growth effects can be predicted from chronic lethality, but reproductive or other chronic effects should not.

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