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Brazil


History and Objectives

The overall objective of the IES-Brazil project, initiated in 1998, was to establish a framework for developing, analyzing, and implementing integrated, environmentally sustainable policies for the São Paulo Metropolitan Region, with particular focus on the transport sector. This framework was created to supply decision-makers with stronger policy instruments to simultaneously address local, regional, and global environmental issues based on technical, economic, and social criteria. The IES-Brazil team completed the project in July 2004.

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Team

The IES project team consisted of representatives from the São Paulo State Environmental Agency (CETESB); the Medical School of the University of São Paulo (FM-USP); the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences of the University of São Paulo (IAG-USP); the Institute of Applied Economics Research (IPEA); and two independent energy consultants.

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Methodology

The IES-Brazil program focused on the São Paulo Metropolitan Region, with a total population of almost 17 million people (approximately 10 percent of the Brazilian population), a GDP of U.S. $100 billion (approximately 20 percent of the national GDP), and 6 million vehicles (approximately 25 percent of the national fleet).
The project:

The team analyzed the following local pollutants: particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and ozone. The team also considered greenhouse gases—namely, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane. Health effects considered included mortality and morbidity outcomes for local children, the elderly, and adults.

The team compiled various studies conducted since the 1980s by the Laboratory of Experimental Air Pollution of the Medical School of the University of São Paulo and used for the health effects analysis. IPEA researchers, who have experience in the economic valuation of environmental impacts, conducted the valuation of these health effects. This project valued health benefits using data collected from U.S. and European studies. The team developed the energy and emissions inventory using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software  Exit EPA Disclaimer developed by Tellus Institute and the Stockholm Environment Institute. Because little information on real local emission factors for various sources exists, the team used international emission factors for some technologies. For example, the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences of the University of São Paulo has used the California Institute of Technology (CIT) air quality model for several years to model air pollution in São Paulo, especially ozone formation.

The PROCONVE 1990s analysis compared the changes in health effects in two different periods: 1991-1994 and 1997-2000. According to this analysis, PROCONVE resulted in net benefits to public health in the period 1997-2000 of more than 4,500 avoided deaths and 5,500 avoided hospital admissions, which were valued at U.S. $2.86 billion to U.S. $3.98 billion.

In addition to the PROCONVE analysis, the team developed various alternative air quality scenarios from emission projections for 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 and considered all major emission sources in São Paolo Metropolitan Region, with special attention to mobile sources, which are the main source of emissions according to studies conducted by CETESB.

The alternative scenarios considered included:

The team then estimated and valuated the health impacts of those alternative scenarios that resulted in the greatest reduction of emissions.

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Study Results

The final IES-Brazil report (PDF) (49 pp, 787K, About PDF), released in August 2004, indicates that PROCONVE will prevent an estimated 10,000 hospital admissions and more than 8,800 deaths attributed to air pollution cumulatively between 2000 and 2020. This number, valued at U.S. $4.8 billion to U.S. $6.7 billion ($1999), is in addition to the benefits already felt since PROCONVE's inception in the 1990s. Other scenarios that the Brazil team assessed had significant additional benefits, but the team must further investigate the costs of each measure. Cumulative CO2 emission reductions between 2010 to 2020 are expected to be between 2.6 million to 57.2 million metric tons. The study also found that the ongoing Integrated Transport Plan of the State of São Paulo (PITU), considered as an alternative scenario, will avoid an additional 2,277 hospital admissions and 1,800 deaths from air pollution-related effects from 2000 to 2020, valued at U.S. $1.7 billion to U.S. $2.3 billion ($1999).

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Meetings and Presentations

The IES-Brazil team has participated in several regional and international conferences, the most recent of which was the RIO 5–World Climate and Energy Event, held in Rio de Janeiro and Fortaleza, Brazil, in February 2005, which brought together leading experts in scientific research, politics, and industry. The IES-Brazil team gave a presentation titled “Support to Local and Regional Air Quality Public Policy: Results of the First Phase of the IES project in São Paulo,” which summarized the findings of the IES analysis completed in June 2004.

In July 2004, EPA, the World Bank’s Clean Air Initiative for Latin American Cities (CAI-LAC), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) organized a Regional Workshop on “Public Health and Climate Change Benefits of Air Quality Management” in São Paulo. The meeting highlighted the work of the IES-Brazil team and provided an opportunity for policymakers and technical experts from Latin America to exchange past experience with co-benefits-related analyses. Other IES teams from Argentina, Chile, and Mexico, as well as other organizations doing work in the region, presented information about their experiences with the IES methodology and co-benefits research. The workshop received much public press, including articles in Folha de São Paulo and O Estado de São Paulo, the largest national newspaper and second largest newspaper in São Paulo state, respectively.

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Outcomes

While current programs will result in reduced levels of most emissions, additional programs will have to be implemented to reduce PM10 over the next 20 years. This study evaluated three scenarios that promote PM10 reduction, which are, in order of effectiveness: the control of emissions from trucks; the implementation of an inspection and maintenance program; the greater penetration of natural gas for industry cogeneration; and the gradual substitution of diesel buses by natural gas buses. These results might already be helpful for decision-making; however, the cost of implementation of each scenario must be further investigated.

Due to the relatively clean Brazilian energy matrix, GHG reductions are not as significant as in other countries, but they are observed in some scenarios, and they are greatest in the scenarios that consider an increase in the use of ethanol fuel.

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Documents

Contains documents generated through the IES-Brazil analysis.

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São Paulo Municipal Secretary of Environment Web Site Exit EPA Disclaimer
Web site (in Portuguese) providing details on the Clean Air Initiative/Integrated Environmental Strategies Seminar held in July 2004 and all the presentations from the seminar.

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