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China National Assessment

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History and Objectives

The IES-China Program was initiated in 1999 in conjunction with the China-U.S. Forum on Environment and Development. The program has conducted several studies that examine the co-benefits of emissions reduction policies at the regional and national level. The objective of this program is to provide scientific support for comprehensive air pollution control and climate change policymaking in China. The IES-Shanghai study examined the co-benefits of clean energy and transport strategies in Shanghai, in terms of reductions of greenhouse gases and air pollution, and associated public health benefits.  Additional work involved preparing a similar case study for Beijing, China. A third study, the IES-China National Assessment, analyzes multiple benefits of clean energy and transportation policies at a national level. The information below presents the major results from the IES-China National Assessment, which was released in March 2008.

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Team

On the IES National Assessment team, Dr. He Kebin led the energy and atmospheric modeling work at Tsinghua University, and Dr. Pan Xiao Chuan led a team at Peking University Health Science Center on the air pollution health effects work. The IES National Assessment team also completed the IES-Beijing Study.

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Methodology

The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) 2000 model was used to project energy utilization, and air quality was mapped using the Models-3/Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Three scenarios were examined in the National Assessment. These include a base case that assumes business as usual (BAU), a climate change scenario (CCP), and a pollution control scenario (PCP). A summary of the scenarios is provided in the table below. The IES National Assessment examines nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulfur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter (PM10), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), ammonia (NH3), and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions over a 30-year period.

National Assessment Scenarios
Scenario Key Aspects
Business As Usual
(BAU)
    Electricity and gas fuel are the dominant energy sources in urban households.
    Energy conservation law and related laws are well implemented.
    For mobile sources, Euro III standards will be implemented in 2008, Euro IV in 2012, and more strict standards implemented in 2018 and 2025.
    Policies in the "two controlled zones" are implemented according to the government's plan: new power plants must install flue gas desulferization (FGD) equipment after 2000, and NOX control technologies begin to be widely used from 2015.
Climate Change Policies In addition to the key aspects listed in the BAU:
    Energy intensity in the industrial sector decreases more rapidly.
    More energy saving appliances are applied in the residential sector.
    Energy conservation standards for buildings improve significantly, and more dispersed heating supplies are replaced by centralized ones.
    The fuel economy of automobiles increases more rapidly.
    Efficiency of electricity plants and heat boilers increase.
Pollution Control Policies In addition to the key aspects listed in the BAU:
    Accelerate the replacement of small power plants into larger ones with FGD and NOX control technologies begin to be widely used after 2012.
    Efficiency of SO2 and NOX control in industrial sectors is significantly improved.
    PM control is more focused. More electrostatic precipitators and baghouse filters are installed.
    For mobile sources, EURO III standards will be put in force in 2008, EURO IV in 2010, and more strict standards in 2015 and 2020.

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The impact on energy consumption was calculated for each scenario using the LEAP model, and the resulting impact on emissions was projected using the TRACE-P emissions inventory. The projected emissions for each scenario and time period (2001, 2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030) were then used as inputs for the air quality model, CMAQ, to better understand the impact on concentration levels for NOX, SO2, and PM in future years.

The changes in concentration levels of PM2.5 for each scenario and study year were then fed into EPA's Health Benefits Mapping Model (BenMAP) to calculate the expected impact on health endpoints (morbidity and mortality) for the entire population of China. The concentration-response functions necessary for this analysis were derived from both Chinese and U.S. epidemiological studies. The BenMAP model was also used to calculate the economic value of the changes in mortality and morbidity. The economic valuation of avoided mortality was conducted using the value of statistical life and contingent valuation methodology. The value of non-fatal health endpoints were estimated with the cost of illness data gathered in several Chinese health surveys.

The combined impact on local emissions, global emissions, and public health of these three scenarios comprised the co-benefits analysis in the China National Assessment.


Outcomes

The results of the China National Assessment indicate that CCP policies are most effective when the goal is to reduce GHG emissions and local/regional pollutants at the same time. PCP policies are most effective in reducing local/regional pollutants, but they offer few additional benefits in terms of GHG abatement compared to CCP.

The results of the valuation of health effects show that PCP has more PM2.5-related economic benefits than CCP alone. In 2030, the expected value of avoided morbidity and mortality from Scenario 1 is $3.49 per capita in 2005 dollars. The value of avoided morbidity and mortality under Scenario 2 in 2030 is estimated at $11.76 per capita in 2005 dollars.

The final report for the IES China National Assessment was completed in November 2007 and released in March 2008.

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Documents

Contains documents generated through the IES-National Assessment.

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