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Shanghai
IES programs for
- History and Objectives
- Team
- Methodology
- Study Results
- Meetings and Presentations
- Outcomes
- Documents
- Links
History and Objectives
The IES program began as an assessment of energy options and health impacts in two major Chinese cities, of which Shanghai was the first, and Beijing was the second; now a national assessment is underway. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), through a partnership with the World Resources Institute (WRI) and China Council of International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED), originally supported the Shanghai local study concept in early 1999. The work was conducted in consultation with China’s State Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA).
The objective of the Shanghai study was to evaluate the reduction of emissions of local air pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions under several energy and environmental policy scenarios, and to estimate the improvement in the pollutant exposure levels.
In April 1999, EPA’s Administrator signed a series of Statements of Intent with the Minister of SEPA. One of these expanded the ongoing WRI-CCICED project into a broader, national assessment by creating a partnership to "Assess Benefits of Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and Protect Public Health in China."Team
Two technical teams were involved in the IES-Shanghai program. The Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences (SAES), under the leadership of Dr. Changhong Chen, conducted work on energy analysis, pollutant mitigation options, and air quality modeling. Fudan University (formerly Shanghai Medical University), under the leadership of Professor Bingheng Chen, conducted the analysis of air pollution health impacts and the valuation of those impacts.
Methodology
The IES-Shanghai project followed the general approach of prior IES studies in other countries. The team developed energy utilization scenarios from 1995 through 2020 and then calculated consequent pollutant emissions levels using the Market Allocation Model (MARKAL). The team then translated the source emissions into air pollution exposure levels via the University of Iowa’s ATMOS model. The SAES also developed and used an earlier Industrial Source Complex (ISC)-type model for air dispersion, but the final study results use ATMOS output. The model estimated ambient pollutant concentrations and particulate matter (PM10), then the team subsequently used PM10 levels to estimate health impacts.
Professor Chen and her health-effects team assessed the health impacts associated with each of the energy options. They calculated the magnitude of health impacts in relation to energy-related air pollutants, including sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and PM10, using both a health-based risk assessment approach and percentage increases of mortality or morbidity per unit increase of air pollutant concentration. A health assessment model called Air Pollution Health Effects Benefit Analysis (APHEBA), developed by Dr. Luis Cifuentes (IES Chile) and coded in Analytica®, made the calculation of results faster and easier. The team also used concentration response (CR) values from Chinese epidemiological studies in the model, where available, to estimate the magnitude of health impacts in Shanghai.
Study Results
The final IES Shanghai report (PDF) (179 pp, 4.6MB, About PDF), released in late 2001, included six scenarios (a “business as usual” base case and five energy and air pollution control cases) and projected emissions reductions and health benefits through 2020. Integrated measures included in the scenarios include efficiency improvements in industrial coal use, switching to natural gas, SO2 and nitrogen oxides (NOx) targets and a carbon tax. The study indicates that 647 to 5,472 premature deaths would be averted in 2010 through improvements in air quality from the different scenarios. In 2020, this figure would range from 1,265 to 11,130 averted deaths annually, depending on the scenario. Additionally, these actions would reduce associated annual CO2 emissions by 9 million to 47 million metric tons in 2010 and 14 million to 73 million metric tons in 2020 over the base case scenario, depending on which policies are implemented.
IES-Shanghai Study, Key Results
Scenario | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2020 | |||||
PM10 |
Averted Deaths per yr |
CO2 |
PM10 |
Averted Deaths per yr |
CO2 |
|
EE Coal |
6 |
647 |
9 |
13 |
1,265 |
14 |
EE Coal, Nat Gas Fuel Switch |
34 |
2,937 |
25 |
84 |
6,834 |
56 |
Plus SO2 Targets |
40 |
3,275 |
31 |
86 |
6,958 |
58 |
Plus NOx Targets |
61 |
4,538 |
30 |
150 |
9,807 |
57 |
Plus CO2 Tax |
73 |
5,472 |
47 |
163 |
11,130 |
73 |
Meetings and Presentations
The IES team has presented results from the Shanghai analysis at numerous domestic and international meetings. For example, the team presented and discussed preliminary results and the China IES methodology at the International Conference on Environmental and Occupational Disease in Lucknow, India, during November 2000. Professor He Kebin of Tsinghua University gave an overview presentation on the IES-China project, including plans for the Shanghai and Beijing analyses. Professor Binheng Chen also participated in the discussion and provided more details on the Shanghai analysis. Haidong Kan presented more substantial results, with a focus on health effects, at the September 2001 International Society for Environmental Epidemiology (ISEE) Annual Meeting in Garmisch, Germany. More recently, Bingheng Chen presented health effects results at the WHO/China Ministry of Health Symposium on Chemical Safety in Beijing, China, in July 2002.
The team presented final results of the IES-Shanghai analysis to key decision-makers at a one-day policymakers’ workshop in Shanghai in February 2002. Participants included two divisions of China’s SEPA, the Shanghai Environmental Protection Bureau, Shanghai Center for Disease Control, and the Shanghai Economic Development Bureau. This was the first time many of these health experts and policymakers had seen a quantifiable linkage between energy policies and health benefits. According to participants, the roundtable provided an excellent opportunity for relevant decision-makers at both the local and national levels to meet.
In March 2002, Changhong Chen presented the final energy, environment, health, and economic results of the IES-Shanghai project at a Wilson Center international symposium in Washington, D.C. Most recently, Professor Bingheng Chen presented a paper on “Integrated Assessment on Health Impact & Energy Options - A Case Study in Shanghai” at the International Pacific Research Center’s (IPRC’s) “Air Pollution As Climate Forcing” workshop in Honolulu, Hawaii, in April 2002.
Outcomes
One of the goals of the IES program is to influence the formation and evaluation of policies that emphasize co-benefits from integrated policies. To this extent, the Shanghai study has already had an impact on policymaking in China. During the final stages of the IES-Shanghai project, the municipal government commissioned the study team to prepare background reports for the air quality portion of Shanghai’s 10th five-year plan. At the February 2002 policymakers’ workshop, representatives from both SEPA and the Shanghai Environmental Protection Bureau confirmed that the IES study influenced the development of this five-year plan. Specifically, the IES-Shanghai work helped identify particulate control as a high priority; influenced the setting of five-year goals for SO2, NOx and PM10; and identified specific technologies and fuel mix goals for the Shanghai energy system. In addition, municipal officials credited the IES work for improving coordination among energy, environment, and public health organizations in Shanghai.
The IES-Shanghai project has demonstrated connections among energy policies, health benefits, and associated greenhouse gas reductions in China and has raised awareness among Chinese experts in these fields regarding the interplay between these issues. Local air quality policy decisions in Shanghai have already been influenced by this work.
Documents
Contains documents generated through the IES-Shanghai analysis.
Also note that results from the IES-Shanghai analysis have been published both in English and Chinese. Major publications stemming from this work, written and published by the two teams independently and jointly, include:
- Changhong Chen, et al. (2002). “Reduction of Emission from Energy Systems Under Implementing Atmospheric Pollutant Emissions Control,” Energy Research and Information.
- Changhong Chen, et al. (September, 2002). “Energy Structure Adjustment and Air Pollutant Emission; MARKAL Model Application,” Shanghai Environmental Science.
- Bingheng Chen, et al. (2001). “Methodology on the Health Risk Assessment of Ambient Air Pollution,” Journal of Environment and Health.
- Bingheng Chen, et al. (2002). “Quantitative Evaluation of the Impact of Air Sulfur Dioxide on Human Health in the Urban Districts of Shanghai,” Journal of Environment and Health.
- Bingheng Chen, et al. (September, 2002). “Quantitative Impacts of Ambient Air Nitrogen Oxides on Human Health in Shanghai,” Shanghai Environmental Science.
Several other publications on the Shanghai study for both Chinese and international publications are also in progress.
Links
Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences (SAES) 
(Web site is in Chinese) SAES was the lead partner in the IES-Shanghai analysis.