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Phase 3: Cost-Benefit Analysis of BRT
IES programs for
History and Objectives
Within the broad objectives of the IES program, Phase 3 focused on the air quality and health impacts of implementing a bus rapid transit system in Mexico City.
Team
The IES team is based at the National Institute of Ecology (INE) in coordination with the other members of the Metropolitan Environmental Commission (CAM) and the governments of the State of Mexico and the Federal District. Dr. Adrián Fernández, Dr. Leonora Rojas Bracho, Veronica Garibay Bravo, and Julia Martinez (Biól.) of INE oversee the technical team. Through coordination by and collaboration with INE, individuals from several other institutions have contributed to the various phases of IES-Mexico work.
Methodology
In the Phase 3 final report (44 pp, 371 KB, About PDF), the team focused on quantifying the costs and benefits of a new bus rapid transit (BRT) system, the Metrobús, operating on Insurgentes Avenue. The timeframe of interest for this analysis is 2005-2015 and the elements considered are the capital and operation and maintenance costs, estimated reductions in local and global air pollution, the associated health impacts, and reductions in travel time during peak hours.
The steps undertaken to complete this analysis included:
- Estimating changes in vehicle fleet and associated VKT due to Metrobús corridor.
- Computing resultant changes in emissions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), total hydrocarbons (THC), and greenhouse gases (GHGs).
- Estimating changes in ambient concentration of PM2.5 from changes in emissions.
- Calculating the related health benefits and associated economic value due to reductions in ambient PM2.5.
- Determining the travel time benefits due to the corridor and the economic value of that time.
- Compiling the capital costs of the Metrobús and the maintenance costs of busses, microbuses, and the Metrobús;
- Comparing all costs and benefits investigated.
- Performing a sensitivity analysis.
Study Results
Between 2005 and 2015, 280,000 tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions will be eliminated due to the new Metrobús corridor on Insurgentes Avenue. Avoided health outcomes from reductions in PM2.5 concentrations are 6,100 work loss days, 600 restricted activity days, 12 new cases of chronic bronchitis, and three deaths annually, with an estimated annual value of 3 million U.S. dollars (USD). The Insurgentes Avenue Metrobús corridor saves over 2 million hours of travel time each year, which is valued at 1.3 million USD. Between 2006 and 2015 over 3 million USD will be saved in operating costs annually. Taking into account health benefits, travel time benefits, and costs of the Metrobús between 2005 and 2015, and applying a discount rate of 7 percent, yields a net present value of 12.3 million USD.