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Mexico
- History and Objectives
- Team
- Phase 1: Co-Control Analysis (February, 2003)
- Phase 2: Co-Benefits (August, 2003)
- Phase 3: Cost-Benefit Analysis of BRT (2007)
- Phase 4: National Co-Benefits Study (Ongoing)
- Documents
- Links
History and Objectives
Work on the IES-Mexico program in Mexico City began in February 2002. The initial project was designed to improve analysis of measures under consideration in PROAIRE, the Metropolitan Environmental Commission’s (CAM) set of policy measures for addressing local air quality in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) from 2002-2010, and add consideration of associated greenhouse gases (GHGs) to that analysis.
Subsequent IES-Mexico activities have extended this work to explore measures beyond PROAIRE and beyond the MCMA. Now in its fourth phase of work, the goals of IES-Mexico continue to include the following:
- Building capacity in Mexico for integrated environmental and economic assessment using quantitative tools;
- Using quantitative tools to estimate the integrated benefits of relevant policy and technology measures impacting emissions of greenhouse gasses; and
- Providing results and tools with relevance to the decision-making process regarding emissions controls in Mexico to policymakers.
Team
The IES team is based at the National Institute of Ecology (INE) in coordination with the other members of the CAM, and the governments of the State of Mexico and the Federal District. Dr. Adrián Fernández, Dr. Leonora Rojas Bracho, and Julia Martinez (Biól.) of INE oversee the technical team. Through coordination by and collaboration with INE, individuals from several other institutions have contributed to the various phases of IES-Mexico work.
Phase 1: Co-Control Analysis
Methodology
The first phase of work in Mexico, the “co-control” phase, was designed to build capacity in Mexico for addressing the problems of urban air pollution and associated GHG emissions in an integrated manner. Through this project, the team worked to unify the air quality control measures in PROAIRE with GHG mitigation measures from separate studies into one consistent body of possible control actions. This included the quantification of costs and reductions in emissions of multiple pollutants. This body of control actions forms the foundation for analyzing and planning integrated management of urban air pollution and GHG emissions. The team also worked to develop and implement decision-support tools based on linear programming and goal programming with three main objectives:
- To provide support to CAM for decision-making with the goal of informing the forthcoming two-year review of PROAIRE;
- To explore the least-cost set of policies and actions for achieving emissions reductions of multiple pollutants, to address more general questions on the relationship between urban air pollution control and associated GHG mitigation; and
- To develop methods that would complement the co-benefits methods used for IES projects in other countries.
The co-control study resulted in an improved framework for quantitative methods of policy analysis by analyzing the links between policies, activities, and emissions of multiple pollutants. These methods focus on identifying cost-effective means of achieving emissions reductions of multiple gases.
Study Results
Initial results from the Phase 1 final report (PDF) (94 pp, 673K, About PDF) indicate that implementation of the measures in PROAIRE would yield a reduction of about 2.2 million tons carbon dioxide (CO2) per year in 2010, a 3.5% reduction from the baseline projected CO2 emissions for the MCMA. This reduction results equally from measures that improve vehicle technology and replace old vehicles with newer vehicles and investments to improve the transportation infrastructure (e.g., expansion and improvement of public transportation). This reduction in associated CO2 emissions can be considered an important “co-benefit” of actions to improve urban air quality.
Results also indicate significant opportunities for achieving the air quality goals of PROAIRE at a reduced cost. The total cost of achieving air quality improvements can be reduced by increasing the emphasis on more cost-effective measures, while decreasing the emphasis on less cost-effective measures. When only PROAIRE measures are considered, the team estimated that the air quality goals can be met with up to 20% reductions in both the total investment costs and the net present value (NPV).
The GHG mitigation measures were often characterized by relatively large up-front investments, but show good returns or negative NPVs over a longer term due to the significant savings in fuel or electricity consumption. This contrasts with the PROAIRE measures, where changes in expenditures on fuels or electricity are generally a smaller component of the NPV.
Outcomes
A workshop was held in August 2002 to present results of the co-control work to policymakers and other stakeholders. Participants included members of the CAM as well as IES participants from the other Latin American projects. Participants felt that the IES work would help improve the information and tools available to decision-makers.
Experience in attracting interest from policymakers was very encouraging. Project meetings and discussions of the assumptions made in cost and emissions reductions estimates involve a wide participation from CAM and have raised CAM members' awareness of possible methodological improvements. Further, some members of CAM have suggested that this project can be very useful in promoting objective and quantitative policy analysis in evaluating emissions control strategies. Through these discussions, the co-control project became a focal point for early discussions within CAM about the two-year review of PROAIRE, and led to a new focus on the use of quantitative methods and the inclusion of associated GHG mitigation.
Phase 2: Co-Benefits
Methodology
The steps in the Phase 2 co-benefits study were:
- Policies
- Activities
- Urban Emissions
- Concentrations
- Exposures
- Health Effects
- GHG Emissions
During this phase of work, the co-benefits analysis, the team focused on the MCMA and considered effects of the measures analyzed on primary and secondary particulate matter (for both PM2.5 and PM10) and ozone (O3). The associated greenhouse gases under consideration were carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).
The time horizons for this work were 2010 and 2020. 2010 was chosen because it is the timeframe for the PROAIRE program and thus, has a relevance to current decision-making, and 2020 was chosen because the benefits reaped from long-term projects requiring large initial investments (e.g., Metro expansion) will be more appropriately estimated over this longer period.
Study Results
In the Phase 2 final report (176 pp, 2,176 KB, About PDF), the Mexico team describe how the five measures considered in this study could reduce annualized exposure to particulate air pollution by 1% and to maximum daily ozone by 3%, and also reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2% (more than 300,000 tons C equivalent per year) for both the time periods. The IES team estimated that for both time horizons, over 4400 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per year could be saved, with monetized public health benefits on the order of 200 million USD per year. In contrast, total costs are under 70 million USD per year. The mean cost per quality-adjusted life year is estimated to be under 40,000 USD for the five measures. Of the measures considered, transportation measures are most promising for simultaneous reductions of both local and global pollution in Mexico City.
Phase 3: Cost-Benefit Analysis of BRT
Methodology
In the Phase 3 final report (44 pp, 371 KB, About PDF), the team focused on quantifying the costs and benefits of a new bus rapid transit (BRT) system, the Metrobús, operating on Insurgentes Avenue. The time frame of interest for this analysis is 2005-2015 and the elements considered are the capital and operation and maintenance costs, estimated reductions in local and global air pollution, the associated health impacts, and reductions in travel time during peak hours.
The steps undertaken to complete this analysis included:
- Estimating changes in vehicle fleet and associated VKT due to Metrobús corridor;
- Computing resultant changes in emissions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), total hydrocarbons (THC), and greenhouse gasses (GHGs);
- Estimating changes in ambient concentration of PM2.5 from changes in emissions;
- Calculating the related health benefits and associated economic value due to reductions in ambient PM2.5;
- Determining the travel time benefits due to the corridor and the economic value of that time;
- Compiling the capital costs of the Metrobús and the maintenance costs of busses, microbuses, and the Metrobús;
- Comparing all costs and benefits investigated; and
- Performing a sensitivity analysis.
Study Results
Between 2005 and 2015, 280 thousand tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions will be eliminated due to the new Metrobús corridor on Insurgentes Avenue. Avoided health outcomes from reductions in PM2.5 concentrations are 6100 work loss days, 600 restricted activity days, 12 new cases of chronic bronchitis, and 3 deaths annually, with an estimated annual value of 3 million USD. The Insurgentes Avenue Metrobús corridor saves over 2 million hours of travel time each year, which is valued at 1.3 million USD. Between 2006 and 2015 over 3 million USD will be saved in operating costs annually. Taking into account health benefits, travel time benefits, and costs of the Metrobús between 2005 and 2015 and applying a discount rate of 7% yields a net present value of 12.3 million USD.
Phase 4: National Co-Benefits Study
Phase 4 of IES-Mexico is currently underway in Mexico and will use national-level emission inventories for local (CO, NOx, SO2, VOCs, and PM2.5) and GHG (CO2, N2O, and CH4) emissions to conduct a national-level co-benefits analysis. A selection of measures with potential for substantial reductions in local and GHG emissions will be investigated for their impact at a national scale. Modeling tools will be used to estimate local and global emission reductions from the investigated measures. Using a gridded air quality model with Mexico-specific parameters, the impact of those reductions on ambient air quality will be quantified and used to determine health and monetary benefits of the measures.
Documents
Contains documents generated through the IES-Mexico analysis.
Links
National Institute of Ecology of Mexico (INE) 
INE is a decentralized body of the Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources created in June 2001 to promote and coordinate research on environmental issues in order to provide data, ideas, proposals, and technical input for decision-making to support environmental and natural resources management. It is the lead in-country partner for the IES-Mexico program.
- Integrated Environmental Strategies-Mexico
This is a Web page (in Spanish) describing the IES-Mexico program.