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Regional forecasting under the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative

Description:

This effort will provide models, model forecasts, databases, documentation, and high-level presentations to water quality managers for decision-making regarding anthropogenic substances.  It supports scientific accountability and reporting under the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) with emphasis on progress made under GLRI, associated with programs and actions.  Prioritized Great Lakes contaminants for this regional application are PCBs, atrazine, mercury, lead and other anthropogenic substances in Lake Michigan, associated with economic and societal goods and services.  Several legislative statutes are supported including the GLRI, Great Lake Water Quality Agreement, Great Lakes Legacy Act and Areas of Concern, and Lake Michigan Lake-wide Management Plan. 

Rationale and Research Approach:

Rationale is to provide water quality managers with information and scenarios for alternative futures for decision-making for anthropogenic substances.  Prioritized Great Lakes contaminants for this regional application are PCBs, atrazine, mercury, lead and other anthropogenic substances in Lake Michigan that are legacy and present use contaminants of concern.  Stakeholders and partners include:  EPA Office of Water and EPA Region 5/Great Lakes National Program Office; States of Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan; Lake Michigan Forum; Lake Michigan Monitoring Coordination Council; International Joint Commission; Lake Michigan Federation; and Great Lakes Fish Commission.  The approach uses an integrated, multimedia, mass balance modeling and forecasting framework which integrates air, land, watersheds, water, sediment, and biological resources via a suite of linked/coupled models.  Results of the mass balance indicate the relative importance of source categories for decision-making. The alternative future forecasts typically include scenarios representing present condition/no action and prognosis of system changes resulting from different regulatory and remedial decisions.  In particular, management decisions can be informed by forecast scenarios associated with public health, public risk and ecological impacts.  Outputs will provide technically sound models, data, documentation, model post-audits,  peer-reviewed journal articles, Regional briefings, and technical presentations for scientists and the public that support regulatory and remedial decisions as outcomes.  Under the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, these aspects support accountability, efficiency of programs, and progress toward goals. 

MED Scientists:

John Filkins
Russell G. Kreis Jr.
James Pauer
Kenneth Rygwelski

Publications:

Drevnick, P. E., D. R. Engstrom, C. T. Driscoll, E. B. Swain, S. J. Balough, N. C. Kamman, D. T. Long, D. G. C. Muir, M. J. Parsons, K. R. Rolfus, and R. Rossmann.  2012.  Spatial and temporal patterns of mercury accumulation in lacustrine sediments across the Great Lakes region.  Environmental Pollution 161:252-260.

Rygwelski, K.R., X. Zhang, and R.G. Kreis, Jr.  2012.  Model Forecasts of Atrazine in Lake Michigan in Response to Various Sensitivity and Potential Management Scenarios.  Journal of Great Lakes Research 38:1-10.

Martinez, F., D. Bunnell, T. Johengen, R. Kreis, S. Maples, D. Mason, J. Read, and D. Schwab. 2011. Building an integrated modeling and forecasting framework for lake-wide management in the Great Lakes: A collaborative working group. Lake Michigan Ecosystem Modeling and Forecasting Working Group, Ann Arbor, MI, December 9-10, 2010, 48 pp.

Expected Products:

Date

Product

Contact

Sep 30, 2013

SSWR 7.24. Provide model forecast scenarios to Region 5, GLNPO, Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, and other Great Lakes stakeholders regarding the effectiveness of remediation programs toward contaminant reduction goals and to support decision-making.  Products for 2013: 1) Peer reviewed journal publication on mercury modeling and forecasts.  2) Technical, scientific, and high-visibility management briefings and presentations on modeling and forecasts regarding progress and accountability under the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative.  

Russell G. Kreis Jr.
Sep 30, 2014

SSWR 7.24. Provide model forecast scenarios to Region 5, GLNPO, Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, and other Great Lakes stakeholders regarding the effectiveness of remediation programs toward contaminant reduction goals and to support decision-making.  Products for 2014: 1) Peer reviewed journal publications on PCB model forecast post-audit and mercury modeling and forecasts.  2) Technical, scientific, and high-visibility management briefings and presentations on modeling and forecasts regarding progress and accountability under the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative. 

Russell G. Kreis Jr.

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