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Lake Erie Eutrophication Modeling

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The reappearance of extensive hypoxia in Lake Erie has stimulated intensive sampling and a need to synthesize data to determine the changes which have and are occurring in Lake Erie. Intensive studies have been conducted by the USEPA Great Lakes National Program Office and through the Lake Erie Trophic Transfer Study. Similarly, Environment Canada has enhanced sampling through 2005. Databases for past monitoring efforts and the more recent studies are being assembled.

Models will be used to relate nutrient loads to the extent of oxygen depletion and be used to forecast the amount of nutrient loading reductions needed to increase oxygen. Three prospective models are being considered for Lake Erie:

The historical USEPA model will be resurrected and run using updated loading and kinetic information for comparison to previous efforts. Simulations will be conducted using factors such as grazing and deposition to preliminarily examine the role of zebra mussels compared to effects of nutrient loading and temperature. This historical Lake Erie model will be used for comparison to the more robust high resolution ecosystem model that ultimately will include zebra mussels and other invasive species. The mass balance concept with high-resolution hydrodynamics, sediment transport and fate, water quality, and productivity parameters, with the addition of invasive species, will be a state of the art model. The Saginaw Bay study and Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study will aid in laying the foundations for a Lake Erie ecosystem model that would aid the managerial decision-making about processes and controls needed to restore Lake Erie's trophic status.

The USEPA ORD at Grosse Ile is incorporating zebra mussels and other species into the productivity framework of the high-resolution mass-balance model for the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Study. This model is still in development. Zebra mussels, benthic filter-feeders, and Bythotrephes are being added in different phases. Presently, model programming code is nearing completion for multiclass phytoplankton, two exotic species (zebra mussels and Bythotrephes) and two native species (Diporeia and Mysis) within the high-resolution hydrodynamics and fate-and-transport construct. Calibration of the phytoplankton, Bythotrephes, and Mysis components is nearing completion, and benthic components will be calibrated with the sediment fate-and-transport component in the future.

Publications

Fiest, T.J., J.J. Pauer, and R.G. Kreis, Jr. 2006. Updating an Historical Model to Evaluate Present Causes of Lake Erie Water Quality Changes. Lake Erie at the Millennium Conference, Windsor, Ontario, February 28-March 2, 2006. (Abstract).

Kreis, R.G., Jr. 2000. Integrated Ecosystem Response Model for Lake Erie, pp. 6-11, Appendix B. In: Tulen, L.A. and J.V. DePinto (eds.), Great Lakes Modeling Summit: Focus on Lake Erie. Council of Great Lakes Research Managers, International Joint Commission, Windsor, Ontario, 87 pp.

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