||Demonstration of a Scenario Approach for Technology Assessment: Transportation Sector (131 pp, 5.08 MB) (EPA/600/R-04/135) July 2004
EPA’s Office of Research and Development is pursuing an air quality assessment that will examine the potential consequences of global change on tropospheric ozone and particulate matter in the year 2050. Technological change is one of the most important drivers for the future of environmental air quality and global environmental change. The National Risk Management Research Laboratory's Technology Assessment and Co-control Team (TACT) is pursuing a scenario-oriented approach to the assessment of future technologies and patterns of technology adoption in the transportation and electricity generation sectors. This report presents TACT’s approach and highlights early results in the transportation sector. Scenarios considering advanced internal combustion engine vehicles, hybrid vehicles, and hydrogen vehicles and their associated fueling infrastructures are developed and analyzed. Preliminary emissions modeling results suggest different technology development and penetration scenarios may have greatly differing emissions consequences and, hence, differing air quality implications in the air quality assessment time horizon. Future work will further develop the analysis of the transportation sector, including an assessment of the interaction between economic and technological changes, and will expand to include an analysis of the electricity generation sector.
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