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MARKAL Scenario Analyses of Technology Options for the Electric Sector
The Impact on Air Quality
(EPA/600/R-06/114) September 2006

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This report provides a general overview of EPA's national MARKAL database and energy systems model and compares various scenarios to a business as usual baseline scenario. Under baseline assumptions, total electricity use increases 1.3% annually until 2030. Annual growth in electricity demand varies between 1% in the residential sector to 2.1% in the commercial and 1.5% in the industrial sectors of the U.S. economy. More than 76% of the new capacity is natural gas technologies with 61% being natural gas combined cycle and 15% being natural gas combustion turbines. New conventional coal-fired power plants are not added until 2020, though a small amount of integrated gasification combined cycle generation comes on line in 2015. Renewables add 34 gigawatts of capacity with 61% coming from wind power generation. Nuclear power capacity increases slightly. Overall, coal electric generation grows 0.5% annually, natural gas grows 3.8% and renewables grow 2.7%

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Timothy Johnson

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