Two External Review Drafts on Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Using Probabilistic Methods to Enhance the Role of Risk Analysis in Decision-Making, With Case Study Examples
Using Probabilistic Methods to Enhance the Role of Risk Analysis in Decision Making - Managers' Summary

Document Links

Full Draft Document (PDF) (92 pp, 722KB, About PDF)
Managers' Summary (PDF) (17 pp, 162KB, About PDF)

Risk Assessment Forum

Federal Register Notice

Draft Federal Register Notice (PDF) (1 page, 32KB, About PDF)

The intended goal of the two draft white papers, Using Probabilistic Methods to Enhance the Role of Risk Analysis in Decision-Making, With Case Study Examples, and Using Probabilistic Methods to Enhance the Role of Risk Analysis in Decision Making - Managers' Summary is to describe potential and actual uses of probabilistic tools in the risk decision process, and to encourage their further implementation in human, ecological and environmental risk analysis and related decision making at EPA. The enhanced use of probabilistic analyses to characterize uncertainty in assessments would not only reflect external scientific advice on how to further advance EPA risk assessment science, but will also help to address specific challenges faced by managers and improve confidence in Agency decisions

These draft documents do not prescribe a specific approach but, rather, describes the various stages and aspects of an assessment or decision process in which probabilistic assessment tools may add value. These draft white papers provide answers to common questions regarding PRA, including key concepts such as scientific and institutional motivations for use of PRA, and challenges in the application of probabilistic techniques. The white papers describe how PRA can both enhance the Agency’s credibility and improve decision making.

Public Comment and Peer Review

The draft documents are being released for peer review and public comment on August 18, 2009.

Public comments may be submitted online at: http://www.regulations.gov, under DOCKET ID NO. EPA-HQ-ORD-2009-0645.

All comments received by September 16, 2009 will be shared with the external review panel for their consideration. Comments received after September 16, 2009 may be considered by EPA when it finalizes the documents. The external peer review will be conducted by letter and closed teleconference in the Fall 2009 timeframe.

Background

Probabilistic risk analyses (PRA) began playing an increasingly important role in Agency risk assessments following the 1997 EPA publication on the Guiding Principles for Monte-Carlo Analysis (PDF) (39 pp, 265 KB, About PDF), and was a major focus in an associated review of EPA practices by the SAB in September 2006 (PDF) (5 pp, 55 KB, About PDF). The importance of using PRA has been reflected by a number of other advisory scientific panels, most recently by the NAS review of the Dioxin Assessment, and is an integral part of guidelines that the EPA must apply, such as OMB's Circular A-4 and their draft Risk Assessment Bulletin.

Therefore, the Office of the Science Advisor of the EPA, together with the Science Policy Council and members of the Risk Assessment Forum (RAF), identified a need to examine the use of probabilistic approaches in Agency risk assessment and risk management. An RAF Technical Panel developed draft papers (the white paper and a manager's summary) which provide a general overview of the value of probabilistic analyses (PRA) and similar or related methods, and some examples of current applications across the Agency.