Skip common site navigation and headers
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Ruminant Livestock
Begin Hierarchical Links EPA Home > Global Warming Home > Methane > Ruminant Livestock > Ruminant Livestock End Hierarchical Links

 

Ruminant Livestock

LAM Tutorial: Continued

LAM TOC | LAM Introduction | Using the LAM | LAM Tutorial

Evaluate the Proposed Dairy Improvement Program

Minister Dorje wants to examine the effects of his dairy improvement program on potential herd size and methane emissions in 2010. Before starting with the analysis, Minister Dorje confers with dairy industry experts to assemble information describing the potential impacts of the dairy program, as well as anticipated production conditions in the absence of any intervention. This information is summarized in the table below.

As shown in the table, production is expected to increase slightly by 2010 in the absence of the program as the result of increased herd size. With the program, the potential is for milk production to increase significantly (30%-50%) as the result of improved production practices and feeding as well as expansion of the dairy industry. To use LAM to evaluate the impacts of the program on herd size and methane emissions we develop the following three scenarios:

    1. Baseline Practices Scenario: This scenario will represent the baseline conditions in 2010 in the absence of the program.
    2. Intervention Scenario: This scenario will represent the improved production practices, but will omit the anticipated increase in total production due to the program. This scenario will allow us to evaluate the impacts of the production improvements alone relative to the Baseline Scenario.
    3. Intervention Plus Increased Production Scenario: This scenario will represent the full impacts of the program, including the anticipated increase in total production.

The inputs and results for each scenario are presented in turn below. Following the evaluation of each scenario, the model should be saved with a new name, so that at the end of the analysis you have separate models saved with the inputs and results for each scenario.

 


Summary of Dairy Improvement Program Impacts

No Dairy Improvement Program: In the absence of a dairy improvement program, production practices are anticipated to remain essentially unchanged. Animal management and feeding conditions will remain the same, as will milk production levels per cow. Due to increases in human population, the quantity of milk produced is expected to increase from 10,000 to 11,000 tons per year (10%) by 2010, and the meat production is expected to increase from 1,500 to 1,600 tons per year (about 7%). These increases are expected to be achieved by increasing the size of the herd. No change in draft power requirements are anticipated despite the population growth.

With Dairy Improvement Program: The program is expected to improve the nutrition of the dairy cows so that they produce more milk per lactation and they reduce the time interval between lactations. Additionally, as the result of improved nutrition, the young animals and replacements in the herd are expected to mature more quickly, reducing the time required before they can produce milk. While the impacts of the program are uncertain, estimates of potential impacts based on reviews of similar programs elsewhere include the following:
  • milk production per cow per lactation will increase 25-30%
  • length of lactation will increase slightly
  • intercalving interval will decrease to about a year in the urban areas and to about 1.5 years in the other areas
  • young animals will mature about 1 year faster in the non-urban areas, and urban replacement animals will mature about 1 year faster
  • feed digestibility will increase by about 5% for the replacements and mature animals

In addition to these changes in production characteristics, estimates are that total milk production in the region will likely increase as the result of the intervention. While a baseline increase of 1,000 tons to 11,000 tons is expected in the absence of the program, the program is projected to increase production by an additional 30% to 50%. This large increase is anticipated as the result of increased production per cow, but also as the result of expansion of the dairy industry in response to improved economic return from dairying activities. To be conservative, the total production increase is assumed to be 30% or 3,300 tons, to result in a total production of 14,300 tons in 2010.

 




Baseline Scenario

What information is needed

Target Production Levels:

As population rises in the Topi Region and Mitocha's economy develops, Minister Dorje predicts that production of meat and milk will increase. However, he does not expect that significantly more land will be cultivated in this region, and some technical advances will occur, so the use of draft animals will probably stay constant.

How to enter the information

  • In the LAM Targets Sheet,
  • Enter future production levels in the Production Target Table (see table below). Topi Region will produce 11,000 metric tons of milk, 1,600 metric tons of meat, and has 10,000 working draft animals.

Product

Target

Milk Production (1000 tons/yr)

11.0

Draft Production (1000 Head)

10.0

Meat Production (1000 tons/yr)

1.6



Because we are assuming no production practice changes, no other new data needs to be entered for the Baseline Scenario. To run the model and move to the Results Sheet, click the Run button. Remember to save the model with a new name, such as "BASE01.XLS." The baseline estimated emissions are shown in the following tables.

As shown in the tables, the total herd size increases to about 65,500 head from 62,700 head in the calibration case. The milk herd and meat herd increase in size in response to the projected increases in production. The draft herd declines slightly in size because the milk and meat herds are producing slightly more draft power as the result of their increased size. Because total draft power requirements are estimated to remain unchanged, the increases in the milk and meat herd draft power supply are offset by reductions in the size of the draft herd.

Overall, methane emissions are estimated to increase from 3,235 tons/year in the calibration scenario to 3,381 tons/year in the Baseline Scenario. This is an increase of about 5%. Emissions per unit of milk production remain unchanged because production practices are projected to remain unchanged from the calibration scenario.

 

Results by Sector

Baseline Scenario

Milk_1

Milk_2

Milk_3

Milk_4

Draft_1

Draft_2

Meat

Urban

Rural-Low

Rural-Hills

Blank

Buffalo

Blank

All

Total

Milk Production (1000 tons/yr)

4.2

3.2

3.2

0.0

0.4

0.0

0.0

11.0

Draft Production (1000 Head)

0.1

0.5

0.5

0.0

8.7

0.0

0.1

10.0

Meat Production (1000 tons/yr)

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

1.1

1.6

Methane Emissions (tons/yr)

170

539

552

0

1,305

0

815

3,381



Detailed Results by Sector

Baseline Scenario

Milk_1

Milk_2

Milk_3

Milk_4

Draft_1

Draft_2

Meat

Urban

Rural-Low

Rural-Hills

Blank

Buffalo

Blank

All

Total

Total Herd (1000)

2.8

10.1

9.0

0.0

24.9

0.0

18.7

65.5

Bulls (1000)

0.1

0.6

0.5

0.0

8.4

0.0

0.2

9.8

Cows (1000)

1.5

5.8

5.2

0.0

6.4

0.0

2.4

21.2

Male Replacements (1000)

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.0

4.4

0.0

0.0

4.8

Female Replacements (1000)

0.7

2.1

1.9

0.0

3.4

0.0

0.5

8.5

Male Young (1000)

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

1.5

0.0

6.7

8.4

Female Young (1000)

0.4

1.3

1.2

0.0

1.0

0.0

3.4

7.3

Male Slaughters (1000)

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

4.1

4.1

Female Slaughters (1000)

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

1.4

1.4

Extra Young - Male (1000)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Extra Young - Female (1000)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Milk (1000 tons/yr)

4.2

3.2

3.2

0.0

0.4

0.0

0.0

11.0

Meat (1000 tons/yr)

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

1.1

1.6

Draft Male (1000)

0.1

0.5

0.5

0.0

7.9

0.0

0.1

9.2

Draft Female (1000)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.8

0.0

0.0

0.8

Total Draft (1000)

0.1

0.5

0.5

0.0

8.7

0.0

0.1

10.0

 

Emissions per unit product

Baseline Scenario

Milk_1

Milk_2

Milk_3

Milk_4

Draft_1

Draft_2

Meat

Urban

Rural-Low

Rural-Hills

Blank

Buffalo

Blank

All

CH4/Milk (g/kg)

40.12

169.28

173.36

0.00

NA

NA

NA

CH4/Draft (kg/Head)

NA

NA

NA

NA

149.35

0.00

NA

CH4/Meat (g/kg)

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

739.83

 


Intervention Scenario

The purpose of the Intervention Scenario is to estimate what would happen with the implementation of the dairy improvement program, holding future production unchanged from projected levels. The impacts of the program are listed above, and are entered as follows.

What information is needed

Milk Production:

The dairy program will improve the health and nutrition of cows in each dairy sector. The resulting improvement in milk production is needed to calculate the program's impact on production and herd size.

How to enter the information

  • Move to the Production Characteristics Sheet by clicking on the labeled button. On this sheet:
  • Enter the new milk production data shown in the table below. Note the increases in milk production per lactation, increases in lengths of lactation, and reductions in intercalving interval in the three dairy sectors. The other sectors remain unchanged.

Intervention Scenario

Milk_1

Milk_2

Milk_3

Milk_4

Draft_1

Draft_2

Meat

Changed values are shaded

Urban

Rural-Low

Rural-Hills

Blank

Buffalo

Blank

All

Cows: Milk Production

Milk per lactation (tons)

4.40

1.30

1.40

1.00

0.90

0.90

1.74

Length of lactation (days)

305

280

290

305

200

200

200

Intercalving interval (days)

390

540

500

365

600

600

365

Percent of Cows that are Bred

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

75.0%

50.0%

90.0%

Percent of milk produced for target

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

15.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Note: A non-zero value for "Milk per lactation" must be entered for each sector, even if that sector has a milk target of zero.



What information is needed

Maximum Years in the Herd:

Improved health and nutrition will speed the growth of animals in the dairy sectors. This improvement is reflected by reducing the time spent as young and replacements.

 

How to enter the information

  • Enter the number of years in the herd shown in the following table. Note the improvements in the dairy sector characteristics as growth rate increases.

Intervention Scenario

Milk_1

Milk_2

Milk_3

Milk_4

Draft_1

Draft_2

Meat

Changed values are shaded

Urban

Rural-Low

Rural-Hills

Blank

Buffalo

Blank

All

Maximum Years in the Herd: Adults, Replacements, Young

Yrs in herd -- adult males (Max = 10)

8

8

8

8

10

10

8

Yrs in herd -- adult females (Max = 10)

8

8

8

8

10

10

8

Yrs in herd -- repl males (Max = 4)

1

2

2

2

4

4

1

Yrs in herd -- repl females (Max = 4)

1

2

2

2

4

4

1

Yrs in herd -- young males (Max = 4)

1

1

1

2

2

2

1.5

Yrs in herd -- young females (Max = 4)

1

1

1

2

2

2

1.5

Yrs to slaughter for slaughterstk (Max = 4)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

1


What information is needed

Live Weight:

Some programs may significantly affect the animal's weight. However, in this example we will leave the weights unchanged.

 

How to enter the information

  • Move to the Methane Characteristics Sheet by clicking on the labeled button. On this sheet:
  • Leave Live Weight values unchanged.

What information is needed

Feeding Situation:

Some programs may involve changes in the feeding situation of some sectors. In this example, the feeding situations are unchanged.

How to enter the information

  • Leave Feeding Situation values unchanged

What information is needed

Feed Digestibility:

Feed digestibility will increase by 5% as dairy animals are fed higher quality or better prepared feeds as part of the dairy improvement program.

How to enter the information

  • Enter the feed digestibility estimates for each animal type of each sector shown in the following table. Note the improved digestibilities for the replacement and mature animals in the dairy sectors.

What information is needed

Methane Conversion Rates:

The methane conversion rate could be decreased if a program significantly changed the quality or type of feed. For this example, we will leave the conversion rates unchanged, which is a conservative assumption.

How to enter the information

  • Leave Methane Conversion Rate values unchanged.

We have now finished entering the Intervention Scenario information into the model. To run the model and move to the Results Sheet, click the Run button. Remember to save the model with a new name, such as "INTERV01.XLS." The estimated emissions for 2010 after the program intervention improvements are made are shown below.

As shown below, the herd size declines with the improved production practices. The total dairy herd declines to 13,300 from 21,900 in the Baseline Scenario. This large reduction is estimated because production per cow improves significantly while total milk production is assumed to remain unchanged from the original estimate for 2010. Also shown in the table is that the herd size for draft and meat animals is estimated to increase relative to the Baseline Scenario. This increase is estimated because the meat and draft power originating in the dairy sector declines with the reduction in the dairy herd size. In particular, the number of calves transferred from the dairy sector to the meat sector declines substantially, resulting in an increase in the number of cows in the meat sector. As a result the herd sizes for the draft and meat sectors must increase.

The overall impact of the interventions is a reduction in estimated methane emissions of nearly 10%, from 3,381 tons/year to 3,089 tons/year. The overall herd structure is changed, and the total amount of production is increased.

As discussed above, it may be unrealistic to expect total milk production to remain unchanged following the introduction of the dairy program. The next scenario examines the implications of a 30% increase in milk production that is estimated to occur as the result of the dairy program.

Intervention Scenario (Changed values are shaded)

Methane

Feeding

Feeding

Feed

Methane

Methane

Sector

Emissions

Weight

Situation

Situation

Digest

Conversion

Conversion

Sector

Name

Animal Type

(kg/hd/yr)

(kg)

(1-3 below)

Selected

(%)

(1-8 below)

Selected

Milk_1

Urban

Adult Males

90.8

500

1

Stall Fed

60

3

7.0%

Milk_1

Urban

Adult Females

80.2

400

1

Stall Fed

65

1

6.0%

Milk_1

Urban

Repl Males

51.9

300

1

Stall Fed

60

3

7.0%

Milk_1

Urban

Repl Females

42.9

250

1

Stall Fed

60

3

7.0%

Milk_1

Urban

Young Males

12.9

200

1

Stall Fed

65

6

3.0%

Milk_1

Urban

Young Females

11.4

200

1

Stall Fed

65

6

3.0%

Milk_2

Rural-Low

Adult Males

83.9

450

1

Stall Fed

60

3

7.0%

Milk_2

Rural-Low

Adult Females

65.8

375

1

Stall Fed

60

3

7.0%

Milk_2

Rural-Low

Repl Males

48.8

300

1

Stall Fed

60

3

7.0%

Milk_2

Rural-Low

Repl Females

41.5

250

1

Stall Fed

60

3

7.0%

Milk_2

Rural-Low

Young Males

11.4

200

1

Stall Fed

65

6

3.0%

Milk_2

Rural-Low

Young Females

10.7

200

1

Stall Fed

65

6

3.0%

Milk_3

Rural-Hills

Adult Males

93.1

450

2

Pasture/Range

60

3

7.0%

Milk_3

Rural-Hills

Adult Females

75.5

375

2

Pasture/Range

60

3

7.0%

Milk_3

Rural-Hills

Repl Males

55.6

300

2

Pasture/Range

60

3

7.0%

Milk_3

Rural-Hills

Repl Females

47.4

250

2

Pasture/Range

60

3

7.0%

Milk_3

Rural-Hills

Young Males

13.1

200

2

Pasture/Range

65

6

3.0%

Milk_3

Rural-Hills

Young Females

12.4

200

2

Pasture/Range

65

6

3.0%

Milk_4 Sector omitted from this exhibit

Draft_1

Buffalo

Adult Males

78.3

400

1

Stall Fed

55

3

7.0%

Draft_1

Buffalo

Adult Females

58.6

300

1

Stall Fed

55

3

7.0%

Draft_1

Buffalo

Repl Males

38.8

250

1

Stall Fed

55

3

7.0%

Draft_1

Buffalo

Repl Females

26.9

150

1

Stall Fed

55

3

7.0%

Draft_1

Buffalo

Young Males

7.6

100

1

Stall Fed

65

6

3.0%

Draft_1

Buffalo

Young Females

5.5

75

1

Stall Fed

65

6

3.0%

Draft_2 Sector omitted from this exhibit

Meat

All

Adult Males

93.1

450

2

Pasture/Range

55

3

7.0%

Meat

All

Adult Females

84.8

375

2

Pasture/Range

55

3

7.0%

Meat

All

Repl Males

65.2

300

2

Pasture/Range

55

3

7.0%

Meat

All

Repl Females

55.6

300

2

Pasture/Range

55

3

7.0%

Meat

All

Young Males

13.6

200

2

Pasture/Range

65

6

3.0%

Meat

All

Young Females

13.6

200

2

Pasture/Range

65

6

3.0%

Meat

All

Male Slaught

81.3

500

1

Stall Fed

60

1

6.0%

Meat

All

Female Slaught

69.5

450

1

Stall Fed

60

1

6.0%

 

Results by Sector

Intervention Scenario

Milk_1

Milk_2

Milk_3

Milk_4

Draft_1

Draft_2

Meat

Urban

Rural-Low

Rural-Hills

Blank

Buffalo

Blank

All

Total

Milk Production (1000 tons/yr)

4.2

3.2

3.2

0.0

0.4

0.0

0.0

11.0

Draft Production (1000 Head)

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.0

9.1

0.0

0.2

10.0

Meat Production (1000 tons/yr)

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

1.2

1.6

Methane Emissions (tons/yr)

106

315

308

0

1,356

0

1,004

3,089



Detailed Results by Sector

Intervention Scenario

Milk_1

Milk_2

Milk_3

Milk_4

Draft_1

Draft_2

Meat

Urban

Rural-Low

Rural-Hills

Blank

Buffalo

Blank

All

Total

Total Herd (1000)

1.7

6.2

5.4

0.0

25.9

0.0

22.3

61.5

Bulls (1000)

0.1

0.4

0.3

0.0

8.7

0.0

0.3

9.7

Cows (1000)

1.0

3.6

3.1

0.0

6.6

0.0

3.8

18.1

Male Replacements (1000)

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

4.6

0.0

0.1

4.9

Female Replacements (1000)

0.2

1.3

1.1

0.0

3.5

0.0

0.7

6.9

Male Young (1000)

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

1.5

0.0

6.6

8.2

Female Young (1000)

0.3

0.8

0.7

0.0

1.0

0.0

5.0

7.7

Male Slaughters (1000)

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

4.0

4.0

Female Slaughters (1000)

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

2.0

2.0

Extra Young - Male (1000)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Extra Young - Female (1000)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Milk (1000 tons/yr)

4.2

3.2

3.2

0.0

0.4

0.0

0.0

11.0

Meat (1000 tons/yr)

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

1.2

1.6

Draft Male (1000)

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.0

8.2

0.0

0.2

9.2

Draft Female (1000)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.8

0.0

0.0

0.8

Total Draft (1000)

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.0

9.1

0.0

0.2

10.0

 

Emissions per unit product

Intervention Scenario

Milk_1

Milk_2

Milk_3

Milk_4

Draft_1

Draft_2

Meat

Urban

Rural-Low

Rural-Hills

Blank

Buffalo

Blank

All

CH4/Milk (g/kg)

25.01

99.15

97.06

0.00

NA

NA

NA

CH4/Draft (kg/Head)

NA

NA

NA

NA

149.35

0.00

NA

CH4/Meat (g/kg)

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

833.67





Intervention Plus Increased Production Scenario

By improving production practices in the dairy sector, the dairy program may increase production by 30-50%. This scenario builds on the Intervention Scenario by increasing the target level of milk production by 30%. For simplicity, it is assumed that the distribution of milk production among the three milk herds remains unchanged. Enter the following information into the model:

What information is needed

Target Production Levels:

Because of program improvements, the dairy sectors can increase production so the Target Milk Production level will increase.

How to enter the information

  • In the LAM Targets Sheet,
  • Enter increased future milk production levels in the Production Target Table as shown below. With the intervention, the Topi Region could increase milk production to 14,300 metric tons of milk.

Product

Target

Milk Production (1000 tons/yr)

14.3

Draft Production (1000 Head)

10.0

Meat Production (1000 tons/yr)

1.6



To run the model with the higher milk production target and move to the Results Sheet, click the Run button. Remember to save the model with a new name, such as "INPLUS01.XLS." The new estimated emissions are shown below.

As shown in the tables, the total cattle population is estimated to be 61,000. The milk herd is estimated to be 17,400, an increase of 4,100 from the Intervention Scenario. However, this still represents a reduction of about 4,500 from the Baseline Scenario, despite the increase in production. As the dairy production targets and herd sizes increase from the Intervention Scenario, the meat production from the dairy population increases, allowing the size of the meat herd to decline significantly. In particular, the dairy sectors can transfer increased numbers of calves to the meat sector for subsequent meat production.

With the increased production of milk, the overall methane emissions decline slightly to 3,038 tons/year. The total declines because increased meat and draft production in the dairy sector offsets emissions from the draft and meat sectors.

Results by Sector

Intervention Plus Increase

Milk_1

Milk_2

Milk_3

Milk_4

Draft_1

Draft_2

Meat

Urban

Rural-Low

Rural-Hills

Blank

Buffalo

Blank

All

Total

Milk Production (1000 tons/yr)

5.6

4.2

4.2

0.0

0.4

0.0

0.0

14.3

Draft Production (1000 Head)

0.1

0.4

0.4

0.0

9.0

0.0

0.1

10.0

Meat Production (1000 tons/yr)

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

1.1

1.6

Methane Emissions (tons/yr)

139

413

405

0

1,344

0

737

3,038

 

Detailed Results by Sector

Intervention Plus Increase

Milk_1

Milk_2

Milk_3

Milk_4

Draft_1

Draft_2

Meat

Urban

Rural-Low

Rural-Hills

Blank

Buffalo

Blank

All

Total

Total Herd (1000)

2.2

8.2

7.0

0.0

25.7

0.0

17.9

61.0

Bulls (1000)

0.1

0.5

0.4

0.0

8.6

0.0

0.1

9.7

Cows (1000)

1.3

4.7

4.1

0.0

6.6

0.0

1.4

18.2

Male Replacements (1000)

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

4.5

0.0

0.0

4.9

Female Replacements (1000)

0.3

1.7

1.5

0.0

3.5

0.0

0.3

7.3

Male Young (1000)

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

1.5

0.0

6.3

8.0

Female Young (1000)

0.3

1.0

0.9

0.0

1.0

0.0

4.0

7.2

Male Slaughters (1000)

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

3.8

3.8

Female Slaughters (1000)

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

2.0

2.0

Extra Young - Male (1000)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Extra Young - Female (1000)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Milk (1000 tons/yr)

5.6

4.2

4.2

0.0

0.4

0.0

0.0

14.3

Meat (1000 tons/yr)

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

1.1

1.6

Draft Male (1000)

0.1

0.4

0.4

0.0

8.2

0.0

0.1

9.2

Draft Female (1000)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.8

0.0

0.0

0.8

Total Draft (1000)

0.1

0.4

0.4

0.0

9.0

0.0

0.1

10.0

Emissions per unit product

Intervention Plus Increase

Milk_1

Milk_2

Milk_3

Milk_4

Draft_1

Draft_2

Meat

Urban

Rural-Low

Rural-Hills

Blank

Buffalo

Blank

All

CH4/Milk (g/kg)

25.01

99.15

97.06

0.00

NA

NA

NA

CH4/Draft (kg/Head)

NA

NA

NA

NA

149.35

0.00

NA

CH4/Meat (g/kg)

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

642.27




Mitocha Tutorial Summary Result

The LAM analysis shows that the dairy improvement program has the potential to increase milk production substantially and reduce methane emissions by nearly 10%. The following table shows the estimates of the livestock populations under each scenario. Under Baseline conditions, the total herd is expected to increase from the current Calibration conditions. With the Intervention Scenario, the total herd size declines, primarily because of the sharp decline in the dairy sector. With increased milk production, the size of the dairy herd increases from the Intervention Scenario, and the total herd size declines slightly.

 

Herd Size (000)

Methane

Scenario

Dairy

Draft

Meat

Total

(tons/yr)

Calibration Scenario

19.8

25.3

17.7

62.7

3,235

Baseline Scenario

21.9

24.9

18.7

65.5

3,381

Intervention Scenario

13.3

25.9

22.3

61.5

3,089

Intervention Plus Increased Production

17.4

25.7

17.9

61.0

3,038

Total methane emissions decline in the Intervention Scenario because methane emissions per unit of milk produced declines substantially. Relative to current production conditions, the methane emissions per unit of milk produced decline by about 45% overall with the implementation of the dairy improvement program.

The analysis also demonstrates the linkages among the different livestock sectors. In particular, the dairy sector is an important source of calves for meat production. Reductions in the size of the dairy herd can reduce its contribution to meat production, requiring a compensating increase in the size of the herd used to produce meat. These linkages underscore the importance of analyzing the entire livestock industry.


Additional Exercise

To explore further how to use LAM to assess options for improving livestock production and reducing methane emissions, the following additional exercises are recommended. These exercises build off of the Mitocha tutorial.

      1. Increased Milk Production. It may be unrealistic to expect the sizes of the dairy herds to decline with the implementation of the dairy improvement program. What would happen if total milk production were to increase 50% to 16,500 tons per year along with the intervention? What would happen to the size of the dairy herd? What would happen to the estimate of methane emissions?
      2. Re-allocation of the Milk Target. Under all scenarios the rural dairy sectors have higher emissions per unit of milk produced than the urban dairies. What would happen to the estimates of methane emissions if the milk target were re-allocated so that the increases in milk production occurred only in the urban areas? What would happen to the cow populations in the rural areas?
      3. No Meat Production Target. In many counties meat production from cattle is not permitted or is not a priority. How would the results of the analysis change if the meat target were set to zero? How would the intervention affect total methane emissions?
 
Begin Site Footer

EPA Home | Privacy and Security Notice | Contact Us