Projected Impacts of State Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Policies

EPA and many states rely on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) demand forecast for power sector modeling and emissions planning. The AEO forecast includes some energy efficiency and renewable energy policies (EE/RE), but does not include key existing EE/RE policies that many states have adopted.

EPA has developed and demonstrated an approach to account for the projected energy and emission impacts of these State policies to highlight the opportunity for some states to account for these impacts as they start preparing State Implementation Plan (SIP) submittals to meet the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and other multi-pollutant strategies. The data in this demonstration serve as illustrative examples of an approach States might employ.

To estimate the projected energy impacts, EPA analyzed only EE/RE policies that are adopted in state law and codified in rule or order, but that are not reflected in the EIA's AEO 2010 electricity demand projections. Estimated impacts are provided for:

• Energy-efficiency policies that reduce electricity demand in key end-use sectors through the use of more energy efficient equipment, technologies and practices.
• Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) policies that increase their requirements beyond what is assumed in AEO 2010.

EPA then used these electric sector impacts to forecast regional emissions impacts for Nitrogen Oxides (NO_x), Sulfur Dioxide (SO₂), Carbon Dioxide (CO₂) in 2020.

The energy and emissions impacts are intended for illustrative purposes.

Projected Energy Impacts of Existing State EE/RE Policies

Documentation

• Background and Draft Methodology (PDF) (28pp, 636K, About PDF) Provides a project overview and describes objectives for the analysis. This document also includes a detailed description of the draft methodology, including policy definitions, data sources, sample equations, and reference tables.
• Annual Energy Savings and Generation Estimates (XLS) (1.1M) Provides a detailed description of each state's energy efficiency policies as of 2011, as well as energy savings estimates on an annual and cumulative basis (in GWh) for the years 2010-2020. This file also describes RPS commitments and provides annual and cumulative renewable energy sales (in GWh) for states' revised RPS policies beyond what is already captured in AEO 2010.

Summary of Impacts

• State-by State Summary Pages (PDF) (29 pp, 164K, About PDF) Provides a one-page snapshot of each state's energy savings projections (in GWh) on an annual and cumulative basis for the years 2015 and 2020. This file also includes estimates of future renewable energy sales for states that adopted or revised their RPS beyond what is already captured in AEO 2010.
• Peak Energy Savings Summaries (XLS) (19.9M) Provides estimates of annual peak savings (in GW) for 2015 and 2020, as well as hourly demand impacts for each year in states with relevant energy efficiency policies, as of 2011.

For more information about EPA's State EE/RE policy impacts analysis, contact Robyn DeYoung (DeYoung.Robyn@epa.gov) or call 202-343-9080.