Air Strategy Assessment Program

• Quickly assess air quality and health impacts of pollution controls;
• Identify cost-effective pollution controls to meet air quality objectives, e.g. attainment of ozone and PM NAAQS; and
• Identify opportunities for cost effective controls by comparing existing costs of control with ambient impacts for uncontrolled sectors.

Users interact with ASAP through a user-friendly graphical interface. The Phoenix Framework automates the execution the AirControlNET module (or extracted cost curves, as in the case of the initial demonstration version of ASAP), the Response Surface Metamodel, and the BenMAP model, accounting for data dependencies within the models. The resulting outputs are sent to the reporting tool. This basic functionality is illustrated in the figure below:

The design illustrated in the above figure is important for several reasons:

• users do not have to learn how to setup and use the individual model components,
• automation of the modeling steps ensures that data is passed correctly from model to model, eliminating sources of error,
• the report generator conveys key outputs to the user and saves time and effort in generating report-ready tables and graphics, and
• the system provides quick turnaround time, requiring only minutes to evaluate a control strategy.

What is ASAP's scope and what are its limitations for analysis?

We designed ASAP to:

• Serve as a screening-level tool for air quality strategy development.
• Provide information that can be used for further more formal, rigorous, and targeted modeling and assessment of preferred alternatives.
• Assist technical and policy analysts in narrowing the scope of their assessment.

• Assess individual controls for specific sources.
• Compare relative impacts across small geographic areas.
• Serve as a regulatory or legal instrument.

What is in the initial beta release of ASAP?

We developed the initial release of ASAP, currently scheduled for late 2005, as a demonstration model for regional air quality management. As proof-of-concept, users can develop cost-effective ozone control strategies for the Chicago and Northeast nonattainment areas. The user determines the percentage reductions in local emissions of NOx and VOCs from particular source categories (e.g. mobile, utility, and non-utility point source) in either of the two modeled nonattainment regions. This version of ASAP starts from a base case of 2015 emissions, assuming full implementation of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). ASAP combines data on costs, emission reduction technologies, air quality, and health benefits to provide a screening-level overview of the impact of various emission-reducing scenarios. With this information, the user can identify specific control options and quickly assess their implications on emissions, costs, ambient pollutant levels, and health benefits.

The initial ASAP release will include the following components:

• AirControlNET Cost Curves - Estimates the emissions reductions and control costs associated with specific emissions control strategies.
• Response Surface Metamodel (RSM) / Visual Policy Analyzer (VPA) - Evaluates the air quality impacts of emissions controls strategies and allows the user to visualize and explore the air quality responses to emissions reductions across broad categories of sources.
• BenMAP - Estimates health impacts and related economic benefits associated with air quality improvements.
• Report Generator - Generates tables, maps, and figures that summarize the costs and benefits of alternative control strategies.

Users start by choosing sources and pollutants to control, and entering the percent control desired. Based on these controls, the user can then:

• View and download emissions summaries and lists of control technologies that might be used to achieve the emission reductions.
• View and download resulting changes in ozone levels.
• View and download human health impacts and economic benefits.
• Produce graphs of outputs, tabular reports, and interactive maps.

To calculate various ozone air quality, health, and cost outcomes, users adjust percentages of NOx being emitted from electricity generation units (EGUs), non-EGU stationary sources, on-road vehicles, and off-road vehicles and VOCs from on-road, off-road, and area sources. Users can also get specific information on control costs for more refined source categories, such as coal or oil utilities.

Based on the choices that the user selects in the design of their emissions reduction strategy, we have designed ASAP to automatically:

• Calculate emissions changes in a format compatible with the Response Surface Metamodel.
• Transfer results from the RSM into a format compatible with the BenMAP component.
• Present emissions, air quality, control cost, and human health outputs.

What enhancements will be included in future releases of ASAP?

Future releases of ASAP will have increased assessment power and additional features, such as:

1. Controls Costs. The current version of ASAP extracts cost curves from AirControlNET. Future versions will incorporate more features from AirControlNET, including flexibility with control technologies, least-cost approaches, etc
.
2. Multipollutant Strategies. While the demonstration version of ASAP only allows the user to assess ozone strategies, future versions will include additional pollutants for comprehensive air quality management. The next version of ASAP will include particulate matter (PM), visibility, and nitrate and sulfate deposition, as well as ozone. We anticipate adding in subsequent versions the ability to examine impacts on a limited set of toxics or hazardous air pollutants (HAPs).
3. Optimization. We are attempting to include in the next version of ASAP the ability to optimize across several parameters such as cost, benefits, or a specific air quality target.
4. Assessment Sources and Regions. The next version will include a national, 36-km modeling grid for PM. This version will also allow users to assess the impacts of local controls in nine large urban regions. Controls will be available for five PM pollutant precursor categories (NOx, SOx, NH3, EC/OC, and VOC), covering EGU, non-EGU point, area, and mobile source categories.

Who can I contact with questions and/or comments?

Please send all questions and comments to weatherhead.darryl@epa.gov .