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Instructions for Running the Demonstration Model
To run the demonstration model, complete the steps below:
- Download the evaluation version of Crystal Ball 2000
. - Start Crystal Ball, enabling macros when asked. MS-Excel will open with menu options for Crystal Ball included.
- Open the allo_dem.xls spreadsheet by selecting the File menu option in Excel.
- Open OpQuest by selecting the CBToolsmenu option.
- Open allo_dem.opt by selecting the File menu option in OptQuest.
- Run the model by selecting the Run menu option (green triangle arrow) in the OptQuest menu. The "best" solutions will be displayed in the results table during the simulations. The model is set up to run simulations for 10 minutes and the objective is to minimize the total annual cost of satisfying the following criteria for each month of the year: 30-day average of 200 cfu/100ml, 30-day 90% upperbound of 400 cfu/100 ml, and a maximum of 2000 cfu/100ml.
- At the end of 10 minutes, simulations will end, and you have the choice of (1) running the model for a longer period of time or (2) ending the simulations and viewing the results. Note that an hour or more may be needed to obtain the cost-minimizing results (i.e., Total annual incremental cost should approach $20,000 in the OPT-Results spreadsheet).
- View the results in the excel workbook by selecting Edit in the OptQuest menu and click on "Copy to Excel". The decision variables in the OPT-Decisions spreadsheet will be updated with the 'best solution' obtained from the simulations. A summary of cost, load, and average monthly concentration results can be seen in the OPT-Results spreadsheet.
- View the concentration distributions and sensitivity analysis by selecting Run in the Excel/Crystal Ball menu and clicking on "Forecast Windows" or "Open Sensitivity Chart".
- Rerun the model using the equal loads or equal percent load reduction objectives by returning to the OptQuest menu, selecting tools, and clicking on Forecasts. In the Forecast table, turn off the Annual Cost objective in the Select column by opening the pop up menu next to Annual Cost and clicking on "No". Turn on the Equate Loads or Equate % Red. objectives in the Forecast table by opening the pop up menu in the relevant row and clicking on "Minimize Objective".
Note that simulation speeds may be faster if you are not connected to any systems (e.g, LAN) or have other software open. Simulation speed also increases if you 'minimize excel' and 'suppress forecast windows' by selecting Run from the Excel/Crystal Ball menu, click on run preferences and then selecting Speed.
To understand more about how Crystal Ball and OptQuest operate, please consult documentation for these addins.