Clean Air Markets - Power Sector Modeling
This area provides information and documentation on EPA’s application of the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to analyze the impact of air emissions policies on the U.S. electric power sector. EPA has used multiple iterations of the IPM model in various analyses of regulations and legislative proposals. For the development of its latest power sector modeling platform, EPA has increased its external engagement with state air quality planning officials, power company representatives, regional transmission organizations, and others who have provided input on the data, assumptions, and structure of EPA's Power Sector Modeling Platforms.
EPA Modeling Applications and IPM Platforms:
Notice of Data Availability (Preliminary Interstate Ozone Transport Modeling Data for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS) and IPM v.5.16
On December 29, 2016, EPA released the Notice of Data Availability – Preliminary Interstate Ozone Transport Modeling Data for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS, including EPA’s power sector analysis for 2023 using IPM v.5.16.
- EPA's Power Sector Modeling in Support of the Notice of Data Availability - Preliminary Interstate Ozone Transport Modeling Data for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS
The Cross-State Air Pollution Rule Update and IPM
On September 7, 2016, EPA finalized the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule Update. EPA’s power sector analysis for this rule uses IPM v.5.15.
The Clean Power Plan and IPM v.5.15
On August 3, 2015, EPA announced the Clean Power Plan. EPA analyzed the Clean Power Plan using IPM v.5.15.
- EPA's Power Sector Modeling Platform v.5.15
- EPA's Power Sector Modeling in Support of the Clean Power Plan
Previous Modeling Applications and IPM Platforms
Previous EPA modeling applications for the proposed Clean Power Plan, proposed Carbon Standards for New Power Plants, Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS), and the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR).
General Purpose of EPA Power Sector Modeling
EPA uses the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to analyze the projected impact of environmental policies on the electric power sector in the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia. Developed by ICF Consulting, Inc. and used to support public and private sector clients, IPM is a multi-regional, dynamic, deterministic linear programming model of the U.S. electric power sector. It provides forecasts of least-cost capacity expansion, electricity dispatch, and emission control strategies for meeting energy demand and environmental, transmission, dispatch, and reliability constraints. IPM can be used to evaluate the cost and emissions impacts of proposed policies to limit emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon dioxide (CO2), hydrogen chloride (HCl), and mercury (Hg) from the electric power sector.
Among the factors that make IPM particularly well suited to model multi-emissions control programs are (1) its detail-rich representation of emission control options encompassing a broad array of retrofit technologies along with emission reductions through fuel switching, changes in capacity mix and electricity dispatch strategies; and (2) its ability to capture complex interactions among the electric power, fuel, and environmental markets.
- Coal-Fired Power Plant Heat Rate Reductions
- New Coal-Fired Power Plant Performance and Cost Estimates