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Science Advisor Programs

External Review Drafts of Using Probabilistic Methods to Enhance the Role of Risk Analysis in Decision-Making

The goal of this white paper is to explain how EPA can achieve broader use of probabilistic methods and address uncertainty and variability by capitalizing on the wide array of tools and methods that comprise probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The information contained in this document is intended for both risk analysts and managers faced with determining when and how to apply these tools in their decisions. This paper begins with a decision-maker’s perspective, proceeds to a more technical discussion and finally gives a number of illustrative examples of actual EPA applications of probabilistic analyses.

The purpose of the Managers' Summary paper is to present general concepts and principles of probabilistsic risk assessment (PRA), to describe how PRA can improve the bases of Agency decisions, and to provide illustrations of how PRA has been used in risk estimation and to describe the uncertainty in risk decision making.

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