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["RE set-aside analysis - Appendix 1"]
[]
["Step 1: Estimating the amount of new NGCC generation associated with emissions leakage under a projected mass-based approach (2030)"]
["New NGCC Generation (MWh, CPP rate-based compliance)",100073194.461384]
["New NGCC generation (MWh, CPP mass-based compliance, no RE set-aside)",264274330.90740001]
["                   2030 projected coal retirements (MW, CPP mass-based compliance, no RE set-aside)",109408.04945000001]
["                   2030 projected coal retirements (MW, CPP rate-based compliance)",96972.279536999995]
["                   Assumed NGCC replacement capacity (MW)",{"$f":"B6-B7","v":12435.769913000011}]
["                   Assumed NGCC replacement generation (MWh)",{"$f":"B8*8760*0.85","v":92596742.772198081}]
["New NGCC generation not associated with replacement capacity (MWh, no RE set-aside)",{"$f":"B5-B9","v":171677588.13520193}]
["Estimated new NGCC generation associated with emissions leakage (MWh)",{"$f":"B10-B4","v":71604393.673817933}]
[]
["Step 2: Calculating an RE generation level consistent with mitigating emissions leakage to new NGCC units (2030)"]
["Projected RE generation in 2030 (MWh, CPP mass-based compliance, no RE set-aside)",259150655.16088361]
["Estimated new NGCC generation associated with emissions leakage (MWh)",{"$f":"B11","v":71604393.673817933}]
["Total RE generation consistent with mitigating emissions leakage to new NGCC units (MWh)",{"$f":"B15+B14","v":330755048.83470154}]
[]
["Step 3: Calculating the incentive available through the RE set-asides, assuming total RE generation consistent with mitigating emissions leakage ($/MWh)"]
["Step 3a: Calculating the size of the RE set-aside (allowances)"]
["2030 national total of CPP state mass goals (tons)",1643551543]
["RE set-aside percentage",0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,7.0000000000000007E-2,0.08,0.09,0.1]
["Total RE set-aside allowances in all state set-asides",{"$f":"$B$20*B21","v":16435515.43},{"$f":"$B$20*C21","v":32871030.859999999},{"$f":"$B$20*D21","v":49306546.289999999},65742061.719999999,82177577.150000006,98613092.579999998,115048608.01000001,131484123.44,147919638.87,164355154.30000001]
[]
["Step 3b: Calculating the funds available to qualifying RE projects ($)","Total Funds ($)"]
["Allowance price ($/ton)",0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,7.0000000000000007E-2,0.08,0.09,0.1]
[5,{"$f":"B$22*$A26","v":82177577.150000006},{"$f":"C$22*$A26","v":164355154.30000001},246532731.44999999,328710308.60000002,410887885.75,493065462.89999998,575243040.05000007,657420617.20000005,739598194.35000002,821775771.5]
[10,{"$f":"B$22*$A27","v":164355154.30000001},{"$f":"C$22*$A27","v":328710308.60000002},493065462.89999998,657420617.20000005,821775771.5,986130925.79999995,1150486080.1000001,1314841234.4000001,1479196388.7,1643551543]
[15,{"$f":"B$22*$A28","v":246532731.44999999},493065462.89999998,739598194.35000002,986130925.79999995,1232663657.25,1479196388.7,1725729120.1500001,1972261851.5999999,2218794583.0500002,2465327314.5]
[20,328710308.60000002,657420617.20000005,986130925.79999995,1314841234.4000001,1643551543,1972261851.5999999,2300972160.2000003,2629682468.8000002,2958392777.4000001,3287103086]
[]
["Step 3c: Calculating $/MWh incentive available through the RE set-aside","Incentive ($/MWh)"]
["Allowance price($/ton)",0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,7.0000000000000007E-2,0.08,0.09,0.1]
[5,{"$f":"B26/$B$16","v":0.24845449053468313},{"$f":"C26/$B$16","v":0.49690898106936626},{"$f":"D26/$B$16","v":0.74536347160404925},0.99381796213873252,{"$f":"F26/$B$16","v":1.2422724526734155},1.4907269432080985,{"$f":"H26/$B$16","v":1.739181433742782},1.987635924277465,2.2360904148121481,2.4845449053468309]
[10,{"$f":"B27/$B$16","v":0.49690898106936626},{"$f":"C27/$B$16","v":0.99381796213873252},1.4907269432080985,1.987635924277465,2.4845449053468309,2.981453886416197,{"$f":"H27/$B$16","v":3.478362867485564},3.9752718485549301,4.4721808296242962,4.9690898106936618]
[15,{"$f":"B28/$B$16","v":0.74536347160404925},1.4907269432080985,2.2360904148121481,2.981453886416197,3.7268173580202464,4.4721808296242962,5.2175443012283456,5.962907772832394,6.7082712444364443,7.4536347160404928]
[20,{"$f":"B29/$B$16","v":0.99381796213873252},1.987635924277465,2.981453886416197,3.9752718485549301,4.9690898106936618,5.962907772832394,6.956725734971128,7.9505436971098602,8.9443616592485924,9.9381796213873237]
[]
[]
["Step 4: Quantifying the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) difference between new NGCC and RE technologies in 2030 ($/MWh)"]
["Cost and Performance Assumptions*","Solar PV","Onshore Wind","Advanced NGCC"]
["Capital cost ($/kW)",1294,1668,1006]
["FO&M ($/kW-yr)",7.37,46.5,15.1]
["VO&M ($/MWh)",0,0,3.2]
["Fuel cost ($/MMBtu)**",0,0,6]
["Heat rate (Btu/kWh)",0,0,6430]
["Annual capacity factor (%)",0.25,0.43,0.85]
["Capital charge rate (%)",0.1085,0.1085,0.1026]
["Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE, $/MWh)"]
["Capital",{"$f":"B41*B47/(8.76*B46)","v":64.109132420091328},{"$f":"C41*C47/(8.76*C46)","v":48.045555909525326},{"$f":"D41*D47/(8.76*D46)","v":13.861885576148268}]
["O&M",{"$f":"B43+(B42/(8.76*B46))","v":3.365296803652968},{"$f":"C43+(C42/(8.76*C46))","v":12.344695762981841},{"$f":"D43+(D42/(8.76*D46))","v":5.2279344614558152}]
["Fuel",{"$f":"B44*B45*10^-3","v":0},{"$f":"C44*C45*10^-3","v":0},{"$f":"D44*D45*10^-3","v":38.58}]
["Total LCOE",{"$f":"SUM(B49:B51)","v":67.474429223744295},{"$f":"SUM(C49:C51)","v":60.390251672507169},57.669820037604083]
["LCOE Difference",{"$f":"B52-D52","v":9.8046091861402118},{"$f":"C52-D52","v":2.7204316349030861}]
["* Cost and performance characteristics taken from IPM v5.15 documentation."]
["** Illustrative natural gas fuel cost of $6/MMBtu is consistent with average delivered fuel price in both mass- and rate-based compliance runs.  Refer to RIA for additional details."]
[]
["Identifying an RE set-aside level that eliminates the LCOE advantage of new NGCC, relative to new RE"]
["To establish the proposed RE set-aside level, using onshore wind as the benchmark RE technology and assuming a national average allowance price consistent with the mass-based compliance run ($13/ton), the highest set-aside consistent with a $2.72/MWh difference is 5%."]
["To establish an upper range set-aside level, using utility-scale solar PV as the benchmark RE technology and assuming a national average allowance price greater than the mass-based compliance run ($13/ton), the set-aside consistent with a $9.80/MWh difference is 10%."]