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About the GCX ICLUS Tool

The Global Climate Explorer (GCX) Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) Tool was developed to produce spatially explicit projections of population and land-use that are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).

GlobeExplore the ICLUS Tool NOW! This site contains summaries of land use simulation results as a supplement to the EPA report "Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines" (EPA/600/R-08/076F).

Climate and land-use change are major drivers of global environmental change. Impact assessments frequently demonstrate that interactions between climate and land-use change may create serious challenges for aquatic ecosystems, water quality, and air quality. In many cases, it is impossible to assess the impact of climate change without consideration of population dynamics, land-use dynamics, or both.

The Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project produced spatially explicit projections of population and land-use that are based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) scenarios and pathways.

First, social, economic, and demographic storylines were adapted for the United States. These modified storylines were then used to create population projections that would reflect different assumptions about fertility, mortality, and immigration through the end of this century.

Next, a spatial interaction model was used to simulate the annual movement of people within the United States. Then the results of these population projections are used to calculate the demand for new residential lands.

A geospatial toolset is provided to create and process high-resolution spatial data, and all of the outputs are available.

Below is a list of important milestones to the Global Change Explorer (GCX) ICLUS Tool.

Date Milestone
Apr 2018 ICLUS was incorporated into the Global Climate Explorer set of tools and website.
Jan 2017 EPA released the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS Version 2).
Sep 2016 EPA released ICLUS Data (Version 2) for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA).
Apr 2016 EPA released the draft report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2, External Review Draft).
Jul 2013 EPA released ICLUS v1.3.2.
Jan 2012 EPA released ICLUS Data (Version 1) for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA).
May 2011 EPA released ICLUS v1.3.1.
Sep 2010 EPA released ICLUS v1.3 interactive simulation tool with a companion user's manual (final).
Nov 2009 EPA released the ICLUS (beta) Interactive simulation tool and companion user's manual (external review draft) for public review and comment. [Federal Register Dec 8, 2009]
Jun 2009 EPA released the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines.
Jan 2009 EPA partnered with USGS to work on the development of a geoprocessing tool.

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For more information on datasets produced as part of this project, please visit the GCX ICLUS Tool.