Climate and land-use change are major drivers of global environmental change. Impact assessments frequently demonstrate that interactions between climate and land-use change may create serious challenges for aquatic ecosystems, water quality, and air quality. In many cases, it is impossible to assess the impact of climate change without consideration of population dynamics, land-use dynamics, or both.
The Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project produced spatially explicit projections of population and land-use that are based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) scenarios and pathways.
First, social, economic, and demographic storylines were adapted for the United States. These modified storylines were then used to create population projections that would reflect different assumptions about fertility, mortality, and immigration through the end of this century.
Next, a spatial interaction model was used to simulate the annual movement of people within the United States. Then the results of these population projections are used to calculate the demand for new residential lands.
Below is a list of important milestones related to the ICLUS project.
- Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions. 2014. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111(8): 2909-2914.
- Climate Change-Related Temperature Impacts on Warm Season Heat Mortality: A Proof-of-Concept Methodology Using BenMAP. 2011. Environmental Science & Technology 45(4): 1450-1457. DOI: 10.1021/es102820y.
- National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments. 2010. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107(49): 20887-20892.
- Variation in estimated ozone-related health impacts of climate change due to modeling choices and assumptions. 2011. Environmental Health Perspectives 120(1): 1559-1564.
- Using ICLUS v2 to Characterize Global Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation Opportunities (Presentation). Washington, DC, 2018.
To learn more about datasets produced as part of this project please visit the interactive ICLUS tool.