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About ICLUS

Climate and land-use change are major drivers of global environmental change. Impact assessments frequently demonstrate that interactions between climate and land-use change may create serious challenges for aquatic ecosystems, water quality, and air quality. In many cases, it is impossible to assess the impact of climate change without consideration of population dynamics, land-use dynamics, or both.

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The Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project produced spatially explicit projections of population and land-use that are based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) scenarios and pathways.

First, social, economic, and demographic storylines were adapted for the United States. These modified storylines were then used to create population projections that would reflect different assumptions about fertility, mortality, and immigration through the end of this century.

Next, a spatial interaction model was used to simulate the annual movement of people within the United States. Then the results of these population projections are used to calculate the demand for new residential lands.


History

Below is a list of important milestones related to the ICLUS project.

Date Milestone
May 2020 EPA released updated land use and population projections in ICLUS Version 2.1.1, see ICLUS Downloads for related datasets and metadata.
Sep 2019 EPA released updated land use and population projections in ICLUS Version 2.1, see ICLUS Downloads for related datasets and metadata.
Apr 2018 ICLUS was incorporated into the Global Change Explorer.
Jan 2017 EPA released the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS Version 2).
Sep 2016 EPA released ICLUS Data (Version 2) for the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA).
Apr 2016 EPA released the draft report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2, External Review Draft).
Jul 2013 EPA released ICLUS v1.3.2, see ICLUS Downloads for related datasets and metadata.
Jan 2012 EPA released ICLUS Data (Version 1) for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA).
May 2011 EPA released ICLUS v1.3.1, see ICLUS Downloads for related datasets and metadata.
Sep 2010 EPA released ICLUS v1.3 interactive simulation tool with a companion user's manual (final).
Nov 2009 EPA released the ICLUS Tools and Datasets (Version 1.2) and User's Manual: ArcGIS Tools and Datasets for Modeling US housing Density (External Review Draft) for public review and comment. [Federal Register Dec 8, 2009]
Jun 2009 EPA released the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines.
Jan 2009 EPA partnered with USGS to work on the development of a geoprocessing tool.

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Journal Articles

To learn more about datasets produced as part of this project please visit the interactive ICLUS tool.

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