CPRG Tools and Technical Assistance - GHG Emission Projections and GHG Reduction Targets

As described in the Program Guidance, the Comprehensive Climate Action Plans are required to include future baseline or “business-as-usual” projections of GHG emissions as well as projections of GHG emissions under a scenario where the plan is fully implemented in the near and long-term. Cross-sectoral and economy-wide impacts should be considered to fully capture impacts from planned GHG reduction measures. Several tools for developing GHG emissions inventories listed above can be used to estimate GHG emissions projections. Tools and datasets that may be useful for assessing projected emissions by sector are listed below.

Multi-Sector Projections

• State Inventory Tool Projections Module

EPA's State Inventory and Projection Tool (SIT) is an interactive spreadsheet model designed to help states develop greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventories and projections. The Projection Tool allows users to create a simple forecast of emissions through 2050 based on historical emissions (imported from the SIT modules) and projections of future energy consumption, population, and economic factors. A companion energy tool is available to help states project fossil fuel consumption.

• State-level non-CO2 Projections

The U.S. State-level non-CO2 Mitigation Analysis provides states with emission projections and mitigation cost curves to better understand the opportunities and costs for reducing emissions of non-carbon dioxide (non-CO₂) greenhouse gases, including methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases. The methodological approach for emission projections was used to estimate emission projections from 2020 through 2050, at 5-year intervals. Additionally, this report provides comprehensive technical and economic data on the opportunities and costs for reducing emissions. This data is available through the Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Data Tool.

Sector-specific Projections Tools

The tools listed below are a sampling of some sector-specific tools. EPA will continue to update this webpage with additional resources and tools for projecting GHG emissions as they become available.

Transportation Sector

MOVES

EPA’s MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) is a state-of-the-science emission modeling system that can be used to estimate emissions for mobile sources at the national, county, and project level for greenhouse gases, criteria air pollutants, and air toxics.  MOVES can also estimate energy consumption.  MOVES estimates emissions from onroad mobile sources (i.e., onroad vehicles such as cars, trucks, and buses) and from most nonroad emissions sources as well (with the exceptions of locomotives, marine vessels, and aircraft).  MOVES can be used to estimate inventories for states, territories, municipalities, and tribes. As MOVES can model through the year 2060, MOVES is the ideal tool to use for transportation sector emission projections for future years.

• EPA’s MOVES website – download MOVES and find documentation
• EPA’s guidance for using MOVES to estimate state and local inventories of GHG emissions
• EPA’s in-depth technical guidance for using MOVES
• EPA’s MOVES training resources

Port Emissions Inventory Guidance

EPA’s Port Emissions Inventory Guidance provides methodologies for developing port-related and goods movement emissions inventories, including future year projections, of GHG emissions, criteria air pollutants and precursors, mobile source air toxics, and energy consumption.  This document describes the latest, state of the science methods for preparing an emissions inventory for the various sources of emissions at a port or other goods-movement facility, including ocean-going vessels, harbor craft, recreational marine vehicles, cargo handling equipment, onroad vehicles, and rail, and includes how to project a future year inventory for each of these sources. 

Waste Sector

• WAste Reduction Model (WARM)

EPA’s WARM is a tool that estimates the potential GHG emissions, energy savings and economic impacts of baseline and alternative waste management practices, including source reduction, recycling, combustion, composting, anaerobic digestion, and landfilling. The model calculates emissions, energy units and economic factors across a wide range of material types commonly found in municipal solid waste.