Advancing Quantitative Analysis in Human Health Assessments through Probabilistic Methods

Meeting Objective

The Office of Research and Development at the U.S. EPA, in conjunction with the National Toxicology Program Interagency Center for the Evaluation of Alternative Toxicological Methods (NICEATM), convened a workshop to facilitate discussion of probabilistic methods in human health risk assessment. This workshop provided an overview of past implementations of probabilistic methods in risk assessments, highlighted ongoing research surrounding probabilistic methods, and discussed the needs and challenges for the regular use of these methods.

Meeting Background

 The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine recently recommended consideration of how and when traditional deterministic approaches for human health risk assessment (i.e., toxicity value point estimates) can be transitioned towards probabilistic methods for deriving risk-specific doses. This workshop highlighted past examples where probabilistic methods were implemented to derive chemical-specific toxicity values, provided insight into the current state of the research surrounding probabilistic methods in chemical risk assessments, and discussed the future directions for implementing these probabilistic methods in human health assessments. Broken into four subtopics, the agenda featured sessions on:

• Probabilistic exposure
• Toxicokinetics
• Benchmark dose modeling
• Toxicity value determination

Throughout these sessions interdisciplinary panels comprising subject matter experts from government, industry, academia, and NGOs  conducted panel discussions to evaluate the proposed methods and provide suggestions for how the transition might be implemented. Workshop participants gained a greater understanding of probabilistic methods within the context of human health assessments and guided discussion for how these methods may ultimately be implemented.

Meeting Agenda

Probabilistic Workshop Meeting Agenda (pdf) (35.33 KB)

Dates and Location

Monday, October 7, 2024 – 9:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m. EDT

Tuesday, October 8, 2024 – 9:00 a.m.-3:30 p.m. EDT

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC and online

Presentations

Welcome and Introductions 

Kris Thayer, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment 

Introduction to Probabilistic Methods in Risk Assessment (pdf) (2.61 MB)

Weihsueh Chiu, Texas A&M University 

Using APROVA for Integrated TDI Derivation and Uncertainty Analysis – The Case of BPA  (pdf) (1.54 MB)

Matthias Herzler, German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment 

Case Study: Application of APROVA to Acrolein and Chloroform (pdf) (596.49 KB)

Todd Blessinger, EPA ORD Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment 

Acronym Soup for a Deoynivalenol Probabilistic Risk Assessment (pdf) (2.33 MB)

Weihsueh Chiu, Texas A&M University 

Next Generation Risk Assessment for Systemic Toxicity (pdf) (3.51 MB)

Ans Punt, Unilver 

Application of the SHEDS Probabilistic Multimedia Aggregate Exposure Model for Lead in Soil and Dust (pdf) (1.55 MB)

Rogelio Tornero-Velez, EPA ORD Center for Computational Toxicology and Exposure 

Gap-filling Methods for Exposure Modeling (pdf) (9.08 MB)

Katherine Phillips, EPA ORD Center for Computational Toxicology and Exposure 

Reverse Dosimetry in TKPlate to Reconstruct Exposure Distributions Using Biomonitoring Data  (pdf) (1.73 MB)

Jean Lou Dorne, European Food Safety Authority 

Characterizing Uncertainty and Variability in PBPK Parameters (pdf) (1.52 MB)

Paul Schlosser, EPA ORD Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment 

Impact of Parameter Distribution Assumptions on Distributional Estimates of Human Equivalent Doses (pdf) (2.43 MB)

Celia Schacht, EPA ORD Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment 

QIVIVE and Variability Distributions in Elimination Using TKPlate  (pdf) (4.05 MB)

Jean Lou Dorne, European Food Safety Authority 

Bayesian Model Averaging for Dose-response (pdf) (562.84 KB)

Matthew Wheeler, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences 

Case Study: Application of Dose-response Model Averaging to Chloroform (pdf) (962.58 KB)

Todd Blessinger, EPA ORD Center for Public Health and Environmental Assessment 

Probabilistic Points-of-departure: A Tiered Approach for Life-Cycle Impact Assessment (pdf) (6.86 MB)

Weihsueh Chiu, Texas A&M University 

A Multi-tiered Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Derive Toxic Equivalency Factors (pdf) (2.67 MB)

Caroline Ring, EPA ORD Center for Computational Toxicology and Exposure 

The SARA-ICE Model for Probabilistic Skin Sensitization in Risk Assessment (pdf) (3.26 MB)

Nicole Kleinstreuer, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences 

Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Benefit-cost Analysis (pdf) (1.29 MB)

Chris Dockins, EPA National Center for Environmental Economics