Analysis of the Proposed Greenhouse Gas Standards and Guidelines
Power Sector Modeling
(Using Post-IRA 2022 Reference Case)
On May 9, 2023, EPA proposed Greenhouse Gas Standards and Guidelines for Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plants. For this action, EPA's Power Sector Modeling Platform v6 using IPM Post-IRA 2022 Reference Case was used.
Air quality modeling and corresponding analysis utilized these power sector emissions projections. This platform builds from the EPA's Power Sector Modeling Platform v6 using IPM Post-IRA 2022 Reference Case and incorporates incremental updates.
- NEEDS for EPA Post-IRA 2022 Reference Case: rev: 10-14-22 (xlsx)
- Post-IRA 2022 Reference Case IPM Run Files: Download IPM output files using the link below. Click on the IPM run name. The files are posted in one of two formats, a zipped archive or an excel spreadsheet, and contain detailed IPM input and output files (i.e., .DAT, System Summary Report, .RPE, and RPT files) for the listed run. Review the guide of IPM input and output files.
On July 7, 2023, EPA released additional modeling in support of the proposed Greenhouse Gas Standards and Guidelines for Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plants. The additional modeling reflects EPA's analysis of the integrated proposal, i.e., modeling the requirements on existing combustion turbines and the third phase of the NSPS together with the requirements that were already modeled as part of the Regulatory Impact Analysis for this rulemaking. Additionally, the analysis also separately projects illustrative impacts of higher LNG export demand consistent with the recently released AEO 2023. For more information, please see the Integrated Proposal Modeling and Updated Baseline Analysis Memo to the Docket (pdf) detailing model updates and results, accompanying IPM run files listed below, and updated Table 8-10 Natural Gas Supply Curves (xlsx) assumptions.
IPM Run Files
Download IPM run files for the proposals using the links in the table below. Click on the IPM run name in the first column of the table below to download a file. The files are posted in one of two formats, a zipped archive or an excel spreadsheet, and contain detailed IPM input and output files (i.e., .DAT, System Summary Report, .RPE, and RPT files) for the listed runs. Review the below guide.
Guide to IPM Input/Output Files (pdf)
More detailed information on the modeling framework, specific scenarios, assumptions, and other important details of the analysis can be found in the Regulatory Impact Analysis that accompanies the proposed rules.
| IPM Run Name | IPM Run Description |
|---|---|
|
Post-IRA 2022 Reference Case (zip) as baseline |
Model run used for baseline analysis of the proposed rules. For details, please see Chapter 4 of the RIA. |
| Proposal (zip) | Model run used for analysis of the proposed rules. For details, please see Chapter 4 of the RIA. |
| Less Stringent (zip) | Model run used for analysis of the less stringent alternative to the proposed rules. For details, please see Chapter 4 of the RIA. |
| More Stringent (zip) | Model run used for analysis of the more stringent alternative to the proposed rules. For details, please see Chapter 4 of the RIA. |
| NSPS Only (zip) | Model run used for analysis of the impact of the proposed NSPS rule only. For details, please see Chapter 4 of the RIA. |
| Existing Source Only (zip) | For details, please see Chapter 4 of the RIA. |
| Updated Baseline (zip) | Model run used for baseline analysis of the integrated proposal modeling. For details, please see accompanying Integrated Proposal Modeling and Updated Baseline Analysis Memo to the Docket (pdf) . |
| Integrated Proposal (zip) | Model run used for an integrated analysis of the proposed rules. For details, please see accompanying Integrated Proposal Modeling and Updated Baseline Analysis Memo to the Docket (pdf) . |
| Updated Baseline with LNG Update (zip) | Model run used for baseline analysis of higher LNG exports. For details, please see accompanying Integrated Proposal Modeling and Updated Baseline Analysis Memo to the Docket (pdf) . |
| Integrated Proposal with LNG Update (zip) | Model run used for analysis of higher LNG exports with requirements from the integrated proposal modeling. For details, please see accompanying Integrated Proposal Modeling and Updated Baseline Analysis Memo to the Docket (pdf) . |
All files including the corresponding version of NEEDS, IPM run files, incremental documentation, and support files used in the Air Quality Modeling can also be found in the docket for this action.
For the Post-IRA 2022 Reference Case results and documentation, please see: